ECB says tariff deal is a step forward, but uncertainties remain

Brussels – The tariff agreement between the European Union and the United States, reached on 27 July, is not enough. To truly drive growth and investment, something else is needed. First and foremost, it is essential to clarify the agreement, ensuring it is clear and negotiated adequately in all respects. This is the view of the European Central Bank, which in the Economic Bulletin released today (7 August) warns of the limits of still tense trans-Atlantic trade tensions. “While the new US-EU framework agreement represents some progress, some uncertainty persists,” the ECB’s experts warn.

Precisely because of these uncertainties, which remain despite the expected deal, “the current policy environment therefore poses significant risks to the outlook, weighing on global trade and activity,” the ECB continues in the Economic Bulletin. As a result, “global trade dynamics are expected to remain volatile in the near term amid pervasive policy uncertainty.”

 https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/07/30/one-agreement-two-versions-many-doubts-the-eu-us-tariff-deal-brings-more-chaos-than-clarity/

The Bulletin refers to the unresolved elements of the EU-US deal, first of all, the list of goods and commodities exempted from the 15% tariffs and thus traded at a “zero-for-zero” rate. This list requires negotiations, the duration of which is difficult to estimate, and on which, precisely for this reason, no one is willing to go out on a limb, neither in Brussels nor in Washington. Then there are the changes of mind of the US president, Donald Trump, who has already questioned the agreed framework agreement. Then there is the question of the two different explanatory notes for the same deal. In short, still too many unknowns and “risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside,” the ECB warns.

Among the main risks are “a further escalation in global trade tensions and associated uncertainties, which could dampen exports and drag down investment and consumption,” the ECB said. Not least because, the ECB warns, “a deterioration in financial market sentiment could lead to tighter financing conditions and greater risk aversion.” It means less investment, less consumption, and an economic slowdown. This is why the EU-US tariff agreement is good, but not too good.