How war and rearmament distance the world from the Paris climate goals

Brussels – Increasing military spending by NATO countries to 3.5 percent of GDP risks generating 1,320 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next decade – equal to the annual greenhouse gas emissions generated by Brazil, the fifth largest emitter in the world. According to research conducted by Scientists for Global Responsibility, the arms race will play a significant role in the failure to achieve the climate goal set in Paris ten years ago, to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. 

The report takes as its starting point a review of 11 recent academic studies and a startling estimate, calculated despite the fact that countries’ official data on military emissions is fragmentary or non-existent: every $100 billion in additional military spending results in the release of approximately 32 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere. Emissions come from direct sources – such as combat aircraft, warships, and armored vehicles – and indirect sources, which include the transportation of materials and equipment, global supply chains, and the effects of ongoing conflicts. 

 Inevitably, the Atlantic Alliance’s announced goal of raising the military spending of its 32 member countries to 3.5 percent of national GDP will have a dramatic effect on emissions production. According to the study, it will add 132 million tCO2 to the atmosphere, about “the same amount of carbon pollution generated annually by 345 gas-fired power plants,” or – the report further suggests – by Oman, which produces about one million barrels of oil per day. Already in the last five years, from 2019 to 2024, NATO’s military carbon footprint increased by about 64 million tCO2.

In short, rearmament and warfare are clearly clashing with climate action. The Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS) sounded the alarm in May, stating that growth in defense investments is increasing greenhouse gas emissions, diverting public resources from environmental policies, and posing an obstacle to international cooperation on climate change. 

“It is extremely difficult to see how the current and planned military spending increases can be reconciled with the transformative action necessary to prevent dangerous climate change,” confirms the UK-based organization for responsible science. Already in 2019, the military’s footprint accounted for approximately 5.5 percent of global emissions, to which greenhouse gases from conflict and post-conflict reconstruction should also be added—a larger footprint than civil aviation (2 percent) and shipping (3 percent). 

And that was in 2019. The conflict in Ukraine and the escalation of geopolitical tensions caused global military spending to soar to its highest level since the end of the Cold War in 2024, at over $2.7 trillion. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Israel is the country that has increased its military budget the most in 2024, to $46.5 billion.