Brussels – Europe First, not America First. For Europeans, the breaking point seems to have arrived: weary and disillusioned with the United States, the citizens of the Old Continent are looking to Europe to build a new autonomy, distancing themselves from their historic ally across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, on the eastern front, support for Ukraine persists, although there is a clear reluctance towards Kyiv’s immediate accession to the EU or the deployment of troops.
The report, dated 10 June 2026 by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and entitled “Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves,” analyses a May 2026 survey across fifteen European countries and finds a profound shift in public opinion. As the authors Jana Kobzová and Paweł Zerka explain, “Like little Kevin in the classic comedy film, European citizens have woken up to an uncomfortable truth: they have been left Home Alone.“ This forced isolation, caused by “an America on whom many thought they could depend,” is pushing Europeans to overcome old taboos and embrace an unprecedented pragmatism.
The most obvious sign of this shift is the dramatic collapse in trust in Washington. The survey highlights that only 11 per cent of respondents now regard the United States as an ally, down from 16 per cent six months ago and 22 per cent in November 2024. Conversely, as many as 25 per cent view it as a “rival” or “adversary”, while half of the European public now sees the United States not as an ally, but as a “necessary partner.” This scepticism has grown following Trump’s unilateral decisions, including threats to withdraw from NATO and the announcement of troop redeployment from the Old Continent. Consequently, majorities in almost every country say that “at least some European countries” would come to their aid if their country were attacked.
Despite this disillusionment, Europeans do not show majority support for the idea of “replacing NATO with a Europe-only defence organisation,” with only 29 per cent of respondents considering it positive and 28 per cent opposing it. Respondents are instead leaning towards strategic autonomy. Citizens “generally favour higher defence spending, an independent European nuclear deterrent, and a more ‘buy European’ approach to defence procurement.”
European realism is also evident in relations with Ukraine. Although citizens continue to support Kyiv against Russia, the limits to their involvement are clear. The prevailing position is, in fact, to “oppose sending troops there after any peace.” This view is shared by a majority in Germany, France, and Poland, “three of the EU’s keystone defence powers.” Furthermore, “there is no public consensus to bring Ukraine into the EU ‘in the current context’.” This scepticism risks being exploited by far-right populist forces, who portray Ukraine primarily as a “rival” or an “adversary”, seeking to link anxieties over Kyiv’s accession to citizens’ growing concerns about the cost of living. More specifically, in Hungary, 47 per cent believe that enlargement is a bad idea; in Bulgaria, 46 per cent; and in Austria, 42 per cent. In Germany, 37 per cent are opposed to incorporating Kyiv into the EU in the current context. Only 28 per cent of Germans surveyed are in favour.
Finally, defence spending. The highest levels of support are found in Portugal (59 per cent), Denmark (56 per cent), the Netherlands (55 per cent), and Spain (53 per cent). The only country where opposition among respondents prevails is Italy, with 58 per cent against and 28 per cent in favour.
According to the report’s authors, this situation offers European leaders unprecedented scope to pursue strategic and energy autonomy, but it also requires them to act with extreme urgency. Yet, this window of opportunity could close soon as Europeans are “primarily concerned about a new economic crisis” linked to the energy shock caused by the war in Iran. Many, particularly in Estonia and Germany, blame not only the United States for the financial turmoil, but also “their own national governments.” With the 2027 elections fast approaching in many major countries, European leaders must act swiftly to translate this popular realism into concrete policies, before forces opposed to integration can sway public opinion.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
