EU Enlargement: Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine will be next member states

Brussels –

Montenegro is rapidly moving towards the Union, with Albania close behind, while Ukraine and Moldova are working hard to close the gap with the others. The race to join the community of (currently) 27 members is tight.

In the presentation of the state of enlargement reports, the countries that have done their homework well stand out. The most advanced is Montenegro, which says it is ready to join as early as next year. Albania, on the other hand, is aiming for 2027, having already opened five negotiating chapters. Moldova wins the annual record for making the most progress compared to 2024. Finally, Ukraine, despite the difficulties of the ongoing conflict, continues to make great strides on the path towards the EU. 

“These four candidates have combined their ambition with concrete action,” said EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, who could not help but rejoice at “this great year” of EU expansion.

2025 was a year of significant progress for EU enlargement.

Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova stand out.

They advanced most on reforms in the past year.

Our candidates have ambitious goals to finish negotiations.

The coming year will be a moment of truth.

– Marta Kos (@MartaKosEU) November 4, 2025

Montenegro’s road to 2026

Montenegro, described as “a pioneer country for accession,” received the highest praise. Kos confirmed the important progress of the small Balkan state: “It has already closed four negotiating chapters and should be able to finalise another six in 2026.” The obstacle posed by the political crisis last December, caused by contradictory rules governing the election of judges, has been overcome. Now, Podgorica has greater stability to advance its European project.

Progress has been made toward full adherence to the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy. Still to be worked out is how to strengthen the rule of law and fight corruption, as well as organised crime. To do this, the Union has “extended its hand,” as emphasised by Kos, by making six billion available to support the integration of the Western Balkans.

The pressure on Albania

A similar argument can be made for Albania, which, according to Kos’s statement, is ready to close negotiating chapters by 2027. “Albania has made unprecedented progress: five out of six negotiating chapters have been opened, one remains that could be opened in November.”

The swift pace of reforms supported by the government of Prime Minister Edi Rama is the key to integration. The progress achieved by Tirana relates to justice reform and the protection of minorities. However, the commissioner reminded, not referring directly to Albania, that “when the population considers corruption as acceptable, a law is not always enough to enforce the rules.” Perplexity, therefore, remains even if a recent population survey leaves no room for doubt: 91 per cent of Albanians want to join the Union.

This goal will not be easy for Tirana, however. Despite Rama’s good offices, in Italy and elsewhere, Greece might put a spoke in the wheels of the accession process. 

Between Tirana and Athens a final agreement on maritime borders in the Ionian Sea could never be found. The agreement signed in 2009 between the two capitals was contested the following year by Tirana, and no further agreement was signed. Athens could use the veto in the European Council to obtain concessions.

Chișinău toward Bruxelles

The European Union has also set its eyes on the shores of the Black Sea. Moldova and Ukraine are making increasing political efforts to hoist the twelve-star flag on their soil. According to Marta Kos, this could happen by 2028. Not easy, but not impossible either.

Moldova enjoys strong popular support on the issue. In the last electoral round, the population brought the PAS party to power, the one of the pro-European president, Maia Sandu. The electoral success gave the Union confidence. “We have seen that when we work to protect free and independent information from Russian interference, democracy wins,” said Kos. The task now is “to put the European Council in a position to open all negotiation clusters for Moldova and Ukraine.” Neither country is yet as advanced as Albania and Montenegro, and, for now, they are passing reforms without the certainty that the European Council will open negotiations.

Chișinău’s major successes include gradual integration into the SEPA market system, EU roaming (active from 2026), and customs cooperation with the EU. However, several question marks remain, including legal loopholes in the justice system, economic backwardness, and a lack of transparency in public administration. 

An issue of a different but equally significant nature is the presence on Moldovan territory of the Transnistria Republic, a “small Russia” that is not internationally recognised. Prompted by a Moldovan journalist, Kos did not want to fuel alarmism on the issue: “We recognise Moldova’s territorial integrity.”

The dream called Kyiv

The most complicated dossier, however, remains Ukraine’s. The country is the largest of the candidate countries (37 million inhabitants) and has been at war since 2022. The commissioner recalls how “despite the ongoing conflict, Kyiv is pushing ahead with many reforms“. 

Ukraine’s entry would be of enormous importance for the Union’s security, as well as its industrial and military capacity. Ukraine is now in the screening phase of the acquis, that is, the in-depth analysis of the legislative, administrative, and institutional framework of a candidate country.
Kyiv adopted a roadmap on the rule of law and democratic institutions, as well as a plan for national minorities, all of which were positively assessed by the Commission. The democratic incident that took place in July, when an attempt was made to put the two main anti-corruption authorities under state control, has now been rectified, and the path has resumed swiftly.

The doubt around Kyiv is not so much whether it will be able to complete its reforms, but whether capitals will accept its entry. Orbán’s Hungary has never opened the door, and the entry of an agricultural giant like Ukraine frightens many in Europe. Without the European Council’s consent, any reform may be pointless, but Kos urges Ukraine to “go ahead with the new rules anyway,” with the hidden hope that, sooner or later, something will change.