The Rasmussen Plan for Ukraine: time for Europe to step up

Diplomacy — and the question of how to end the war in Ukraine — is back on the international agenda. But without security guarantees that are enforceable and verifiable, any ceasefire will be little more than a pause before Russia resumes its assault. Europe has seen this before: paper cannot stop tanks.

America’s new National Security Strategy underscores a reality Europe has long avoided confronting. Washington increasingly views Europe as a continent in decline — a soft, exposed flank in a harsher geopolitical landscape. The initial U.S. “28-point plan”, drafted without consulting Brussels or Kyiv, made this brutally clear. In an age defined by hard power, when others design Europe’s security, they do so according to their interests, not ours.

This vulnerability is sharpened by Europe’s changing place in America’s political imagination. The assumption that transatlantic politics will eventually revert to a familiar “normal” is no longer credible — and waiting for it would be strategically reckless.

And the challenge stretches far beyond Washington.

Europe now finds itself in a strongman world — confronted by a resurgent Russia, pressured by an assertive China, and partnered with an America that openly questions “the activities of the European Union.” A continent pulled into U.S. ideological battles, squeezed by Beijing and coerced by Moscow cannot outsource its security to anyone else.

And for the defining European security issue of our time — Russia’s war in Ukraine — Europe must finally play its full role. The alternative is simple and dangerous: others will shape the outcome for us.

This is where the Kyiv Security Compact, developed by Anders Fogh Rasmussen with the Ukrainian authorities, provides a credible foundation. Building on that work, the former NATO Secretary General has proposed a plan to make peace in Ukraine enforceable: a European reassurance force, stationed behind the front line, tasked with monitoring violations, deterring new aggression and stabilising any ceasefire. This is not an offensive mission — it is the minimum requirement for a credible agreement. Crucially, the plan addresses the hardest part of any peace deal: making it durable, enforceable, and acceptable to both sides without rewarding aggression.

Around this backbone, Europe must build a broader security structure: integrated air and missile defence; maritime cooperation in the Black Sea; and long-term training and planning mechanisms with Ukraine.

Europe talks often of strategic autonomy.

Now it must prove it.

Ukraine is fighting for its survival.

Europe — whether it admits it or not — is fighting for its place in a world ruled by power, not declarations.

* Daniel Puglisi is Senior Director Communications at Rasmussen Global.