Russian advance along the Ukrainian front has been steadily declining since November 2025

ISW uses three categories to measure the territory under Russian control. The first is controlled territory: an area falls into this category only when Russian forces exercise a stable physical influence over it, sufficient to prevent its use by the enemy or to ensure the conditions for their own operations. This is a precise doctrinal definition borrowed from US military manuals and does not include areas merely traversed or contested. The second category is that of advances: areas where Russian forces have operated or launched attacks, but over which they have not yet established effective control. These correspond roughly to the zones lying within the line of contact – that is, the boundary between the opposing forces – but which have not yet been consolidated. There is a third category not included in the count: Russian infiltration. These are missions in which Russian units penetrate Ukrainian positions without establishing lasting control of the terrain. These areas are mapped separately because the level of control exercised is significantly lower than in the territory that has been conquered. If we take these situations into account, Russia does not show any net territorial losses — but it must be noted that these are operations designed to give the impression of territorial control, even though, in reality, they are missions carried out in “grey zones”.