ECB: “Global trade remains subdued”

Brussels – “Global trade remains subdued, albeit improving.” This is the European Central Bank’s analysis of trade flows between countries, based on satellite-tracked vessel movements, offering real-time information on trade by country and commodity. The ECB and its president, Christine Lagarde, have consistently warned of downside risks to growth and inflation, and weak global demand can lead to negative economic repercussions.

The worst, however, should be over. The ECB’s experts believe that global trade bottomed out in the second quarter of 2025, consistent with the sharp decline in US imports (-8 per cent on a quarterly basis), and improved in the third quarter. This rebound is in line with recent national accounts releases from China and South Korea, which show “strong export performance, bolstered in the case of South Korea by surging artificial intelligence (AI)-related shipments which partially offset the drag from tariffs.” While the updated tracker points to trade growth. 

However, the data collected paints a rather worrying picture: global trade is suffering, and innovative technological products that are useful for competitiveness are not ‘made in the EU’, but are instead purchased by the EU from its main competitors. From this point of view, it is a wake-up call for the European Union, its Member States, and the twelve-point competitiveness agenda.