Brussels – The global rise in temperatures – combined with the progressive reduction in rainfall – is severely threatening coffee crops worldwide, triggering the typical combination of lower production levels and higher market prices. This was revealed in a scientific study published today (18 February) by Climate Central, an independent non-profit organisation of scientists and communicators that researches and disseminates facts about climate change and its impact on people’s lives. “Almost all major producing countries are now experiencing more days of extreme heat that can damage coffee plants, reduce yields, and compromise quality,” Kristina Dahl, Vice President of Science at Climate Central, said. “Over time, these impacts could spread from farms to consumers, directly affecting the quality and cost of your daily cup.”
Coffee is one of the most popular beverages in the world, with an estimated 2.2 billion cups consumed every day. However, global supply is under increasing pressure, and climate change plays a significant role, the non-profit organisation explains. According to the World Bank, the prices of Arabica and Robusta coffee beans have almost doubled between 2023 and 2025 – the former rose from 4.54 dollars per kilo in 2023 to 8.47 dollars per kilo in 2025; the latter from 2.63 dollars per kilo to 4.86 dollars per kilo – with a peak reached in February of last year. In February 2025, coffee prices reached an all-time high. The scientific phenomenon behind this study is easy to explain: the greater the extent to which the outside temperature exceeds a threshold of around 30 °C, the more coffee plantations suffer from heat stress, which can reduce yields, affect bean quality, and increase the plants’ vulnerability to disease. Equally dangerous – for the same reasons – is prolonged absence of rainfall: “Changes in rainfall patterns can further stress coffee plants. Adequate and consistent rainfall is essential for their growth. An annual rainfall total of 150-200 cm is optimal, and drought can reduce yields. The 2023 drought in Brazil has been linked to recent spikes in coffee prices,” the report states.
The Climate Central study – focusing on the 25 leading coffee-producing countries, which account for 97% of global coffee production – uses a specially designed indicator (the Climate Shift Index) to demonstrate how climate change is shaping weather conditions increasingly hostile to coffee cultivation. The results are quite telling: across all 25 countries considered, the number of days with temperatures above the critical threshold increased from 2021 to 2025, with an annual average of 47 extra days when the thermometer rose above 30 °C, driven by CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.
Even worse are the figures for the top five coffee-producing countries: Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. These are economies that have made their fortunes from coffee, mainly thanks to their strategic geographic location in the Coffee Belt, between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. The climatic conditions in this area have historically been ideal for growing coffee beans: tropical climate, mild temperatures, and regular rainfall. Yet, according to Climate Central, it is precisely here that climate change is causing the most damage, with an average of 57 additional days of excessive heat each year. In particular, Brazil – the world’s coffee powerhouse (37 per cent of total supply) – has reached 70 days, and Indonesia has reached 73. Only El Salvador (99 days), Nicaragua (77), and Thailand (75) fared worse.
The economic consequences of this phenomenon not only affect the end consumer and the higher market price. The ones who suffer most from the sweltering heat and drought are also – indeed, above all – the producers, who have to contend with lower quantities of coffee than in the past or with lower quality. In particular, small farmers are suffering the most, yet they represent 80 per cent of the total and account for 60 per cent of the world’s coffee supply. These difficulties are also reported by Akshay Dashrath, co-founder and producer of the South India Coffee Company: “In Mooleh Manay, climate change is something we measure every day on our farm. Our field sensors show longer hot periods, warmer nights, and faster loss of soil moisture, all of which increase stress on coffee plants and soils,” he says. “Coffee depends on a delicate balance of shade, moisture, and cool recovery time. As this balance shrinks, adapting through better soil health and climate-resilient farming practices is no longer a choice,” he adds.
Yet, there are solutions that allow plantation cultivation to adapt to climate change, Dejene Dadi, General Manager of the Ethiopian smallholder cooperative Oramai Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union (OCFCU), explained. “Our Union is distributing energy-efficient cookstoves that reduce the need for firewood and protect forest areas that serve as natural shelters for coffee cultivation.” The real problem, as always, is funding. The average cost of adaptation for a 1-hectare farm is 2.19 dollars per day — less than the price of a cup of coffee in many countries. But according to Climate Central, in 2021, only 0.36 per cent of the funding needed to adopt solutions such as the one described by Dadi went to small producers, who are the vast majority and would need it most.
“Governments must act and invest in small producers to enable us to expand the solutions we need to adapt,” Dadi said. Words that are waiting to be heard — without alarmism, but with readiness — given that, according to a Climate Central study, by 2050 the Coffee Belt risks losing 50 percent of its arable land if effective countermeasures are not adopted
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
