Iceland moves toward EU referendum, with a vote to open talks possible as early as August

Brussels – Iceland‘s government is considering holding a referendum to reopen negotiations on joining the European Union. The consultation, which, according to the programme of the executive led by Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir, was supposed to take place in 2027, could be brought forward to August this year. Two sources close to the matter, contacted by Politico, revealed information that confirmed the growing centrality of the Arctic in European dynamics.

 The decisive factor that triggered the acceleration has a name and a surname: Donald Trump. His tariff policy – which also affected the Scandinavian island with 15 per cent tariffs announced last summer – and, above all, the White House’s expansionist ambitions on neighbouring Greenland contributed to reopening a debate that Iceland seemed to have definitively closed ten years ago. At the height of a serious economic and financial crisis, Reykjavik made a first attempt to join in 2009, but the country’s economy began to recover much more quickly than that of the EU, and Icelanders decided that membership was no longer a viable option: in 2013, negotiations were frozen, and in March 2015, they were definitively halted.

 Today, considerations of economic expediency seem to be giving way to more pressing issues of national security: Iceland, with a population of around 400,000, has no real national army – the only NATO member in this situation – and depends entirely on the Atlantic Alliance and a bilateral defence agreement with the US (dating back to 1951) for its security. As political scientist Eiríkur Bergmann explained, threats of a partial US disengagement from NATO have created among Icelanders “the perception that they can no longer rely on traditional guarantees, and this has led part of the population to think more seriously about greater alignment with the EU (according to a survey conducted last April, 44 per cent of the population is in favour of membership, ed.). Added to this is the Greenland issue: “Some people are concerned that if attention shifts to Greenland, Trump could also target Iceland,” Bergmann added. These concerns were intensified last January by the words of the new US ambassador to Reykjavik, Billy Long, who – albeit in a joking tone – hypothesised that Iceland could become the 52nd US state and that he would serve as governor.

In recent months, there have been numerous signs of a strengthening of EU-Icelandic relations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met Prime Minister Frostadóttir three times in the last eight months: in July 2025 she was in Reykjavik, in September she attended the Nordic Council meeting in Stockholm, and in January this year she hosted the Scandinavian leader in Brussels, emphasising how the link between the EU and Iceland “offers stability and predictability in a volatile world.” A few days later, in a meeting with Icelandic Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos echoed her sentiments: “The conversation on enlargement is increasingly about security, a sense of belonging and Europe’s ability to act in an unstable world. This is something that concerns all Europeans.” 

If accession negotiations were to reopen, one player that had a negative impact on the outcome fifteen years ago would be absent: the United Kingdom. Reykjavik and London have always been rivals in the fishing industry: between the 1950s and 1970s, the two countries fought the so-called ‘Cod Wars’ over control of fishing areas in the North Atlantic, and it was during the 2009-2013 accession negotiations that the Mackerel War broke out.

As one of the two sources interviewed by Politico stated, “in the end, it all comes down to fishing.” And without London raising objections, Iceland’s path to the EU could be smoother than expected.