Eurozone deficit rises in January; exports to the US plummet

Brussels – The slowdown in European trade flows is intensifying:  According to data from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office, in January 2026, the eurozone recorded a deficit of €1.9 billion in trade in goods with the rest of the world, half a billion more than in January 2025. In the first month of the year, exports of European goods amounted to €215.3 billion, whilst imports stood at €217.2 billion: this represents an increase in the EU’s trade deficit compared to January 2025, when it stood at €1.4 billion. This increase of 0.5 billion euros is attributed to significant sectoral fluctuations: the chemicals surplus fell from €24.6 to €16.7 billion, whilst the energy sector showed an improvement, reducing its deficit from € 26.2 to € 19.2 billion. The January 2026 figure represents a significant reversal from the 11.2 billion surplus recorded in December 2025. According to Eurostat, this shift is mainly attributable to a contraction in the machinery and vehicles sector surplus, which fell from €13.2 billion at the end of the year to just €1.6 billion in January. 

As for the European Union (which also includes six countries that have not adopted the euro as their currency: Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Sweden and Hungary), the balance for January 2026 showed a deficit of €5.9 billion, a slight deterioration compared to the €5.4 billion recorded in January 2025: extra-EU exports fell to €189.2 billion (down 10 per cent compared to January 2025), whilst imports stood at €195.1 billion (down 9.5 per cent). Once again, this figure follows a surplus of €12.3 billion recorded in December 2025, with the machinery and vehicles sector seeing its positive balance plummet from €16.2 billion to €1.7 billion. Analysing the main products, manufactured goods saw their surplus fall from €23.5 to €13.2 billion between January 2025 and January 2026, with chemical products down from €23.0 to €15.4 billion. By contrast, the EU’s energy deficit fell from €29.3 billion to €21.5 billion. 

However, if we look at the seasonally adjusted data —statistical time series adjusted for predictable fluctuations that recur regularly each year, such as Christmas sales and the summer dip in tourism—the situation appears slightly less dire: January 2026 in the eurozone did not end in the red, but with a surplus of €12.1 billion, up from the €10.3 billion recorded in December. The trend is similar for the EU as a whole, with the surplus rising to €10.3 billion (up from €8.7 billion the previous month). However, despite the resilience of the balance, there are signs of caution regarding foreign demand. Looking at the last quarter (November–January 2026), eurozone exports to the rest of the world declined by 0.7 per cent, while imports increased by 0.3 per cent. 

In terms of relations with its main global partners, the January 2026 figures reveal mixed trends for the European economy. With China, the EU’s trade deficit rose to €32.5 billion, reflecting a decline in exports to €14.2 billion (-4.7 per cent) and an increase in imports to €46.7 billion (+1.0 per cent). In particular, Eurostat reports a significant reduction in the trade surplus with the United States, which fell to €9.2 billion from €18.1 billion the previous year: a decline driven primarily by the sharp drop in exports to the US market, which fell by 27.8 per cent to €34.8 billion, whilst imports, down by 14.8 per cent, stood at €25.6 billion. Conversely, the trade surplus with the United Kingdom improved, rising to €16.4 billion despite a general reduction in trade volumes: exports to the UK fell to €27.9 billion (-1.5 per cent), whilst imports fell more sharply (-12.2 per cent), standing at €11.5 billion. 

Therefore, despite the underlying resilience indicated by the seasonally adjusted data, the slight decline in exports recorded in the last quarter points to a possible slowdown in international demand. Europe is currently experiencing an economic transition, caught between the contraction of its leading industrial sectors and shifts in the global trade balance.