Brussels – The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has brought the spectre of an energy crisis back to Europe, four years after the one triggered by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Over the past four years, the EU has gradually moved away from its dependence on Moscow, diversified its suppliers and increased domestic production of renewable energy. However, this has not been enough to insulate it from soaring oil and gas prices, which, according to data released today by Eurostat for 2024, still account for 60 per cent of the Union’s energy mix.
In 2024, the EU produced 43 per cent of its energy, whilst 57 per cent was imported. This is the picture painted by the EU Statistical Office. However, whilst member states mainly produce renewable energy (48 per cent of the total) and nuclear energy (28 per cent), they import almost exclusively oil and petroleum products (67 per cent of the total), natural gas (24 per cent) and coal (4 per cent). Thus, the EU’s energy mix, combining domestic production and imports, consists of crude oil (38 per cent), natural gas (21 per cent), renewable energy (20 per cent), nuclear energy (12 per cent), and solid fuels (10 per cent).
Since the start of the conflict in Iran, gas prices have risen by 50 per cent and oil prices by 27 per cent. However, the damage to numerous oil and gas infrastructure facilities in Iran and the Gulf states targeted by Tehran’s reprisals, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes—are having an asymmetrical effect on EU countries. So much so that, on the eve of a European summit in which energy costs will once again dominate the agenda, leaders appear to be far apart. For everyone, high energy costs, higher than in the United States and China, are a structural problem. But not everyone perceives the urgency of the situation amid the new conflict.
In Sweden, Latvia, and Denmark, where renewable energy already accounted for over 40 per cent of the energy mix in 2024, citizens’ bills were less affected. The same is true in France, where 40 per cent of the available energy comes from nuclear power stations. In Italy, natural gas accounts for 36 per cent of the energy mix, and costs have skyrocketed. Italy is pointing the finger at the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Giorgia Meloni, together with the leaders of Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, has sent a letter to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, insisting on a “thorough review of the ETS, aimed at mitigating its impact on electricity prices and reducing the risk of carbon price volatility.”
A diplomatic source explained that the priority is not the suspension, or the “fundamental overhaul”, of the ETS itself, but the reduction of costs, to be achieved by any means necessary. In the summit’s conclusions, leaders will call on the European Commission to implement short-term, targeted measures to ensure affordable energy. The debate over decoupling the electricity market is also resurfacing, which would allow electricity prices to be separated from natural gas prices.
The fact remains that, however you look at it, the Eurostat report reveals a worrying figure: within the EU, the rate of dependence on energy imports stands at 57.2 per cent. Twenty years ago, in 2004, it was 56.9 per cent. This means that almost 60 per cent of the Union’s energy needs are still met by net imports. Von der Leyen herself, speaking a few days ago at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, pointed to the only sustainable solution: “We have domestic energy sources: renewables and nuclear power. Their prices have remained unchanged.”
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
