Brussels – The Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula: a war against Iran that threatens to engulf three regions, two continents, and three seas. Israel’s military strikes come after having moved quietly on the international stage in Africa. Somalia has never recognised Israel as an independent and sovereign state, and Tel Aviv took its revenge on 26 December 2025 by recognising Somaliland, a territory that has declared independendence from Somalia but which Somalia considers one of the country’s federal republics. It is not just about wanting to retaliate against Mogadishu, seen as too pro‑Palestinian, but also about the desire to gain ground on a continent where other powers are pulling the strings.
Situated on the Gulf of Aden, at the gateway to the Red Sea and on the threshold of the Indian Ocean, Somaliland lies opposite Yemen, from where the Houthi rebels – Shi’ites with close ties to Iran’s Ayatollah regime and, as such, enemies of Israel – operate. Israel regards the secessionist territories of Somalia as its outpost in the fight against Yemeni terrorists .
Indeed, the Houthis have fired two missiles at Israel in recent days, in the midst of a war that has spiralled out of control and could see a new front open up. Diplomatic relations between Israel and Somaliland are such that they have prompted the Jewish state to consider setting up military bases in the Horn of Africa, a prospect that has infuriated the states in the region and the African Union. However, EU military vessels engaged in the Aspides and Atalanta naval missions are also stationed and operating along the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and the opening of a new military front risks having serious implications. Europe could, in essence, find itself drawn into a war it doesn’t want.
Israel has certainly embarked on a new policy of expanding its influence in Africa, raising the usual questions. The recognition of Somaliland – the first by a UN member state – is contributing to tensions with Somalia, in a region in which the EU nevertheless has strategic interests. Also, Egypt and Sudan are on alert: the two countries fear that the recognition of Somaliland could prompt Ethiopia to claim the waters of the Blue Nile for itself and manage the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam without being accountable to anyone. In addition, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt have begun coordinating to counter what they consider a destabilising “Axis of Secession.” These countries view secessionist movements as disruptive tools of geopolitical strategy in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, and as a threat, and intend to counter them.
Israel’s moves in Africa thus add yet another player to a continent where diverse interests converge. China, Russia, the United States, France, and Turkey are among the many active players in Africa, including Iran, the Islamic Republic. On 10 March 2023, Tehran hosted the first Iran-West Africa economic summit, further evidence of the Ayatollahs’ regime’s growing influence on the continent. Iran’s repositioning is also shaping Israel’s, with the EU seemingly struggling to carve out a role for itself.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
