Copernicus: “Global warming is accelerating; temperatures could exceed 1.5 °C within four years”

Brussels – “Strong and consistent evidence shows that the entire climate system is continuing to heat, driving rapid global warming. Human activities pushed global warming to 1.37°C in 2025, and its level is projected to surpass 1.5°C in about four years.“ This is one of the main conclusions of the latest report on global climate change indicators (Indicators of Global Climate Change – IGCC), published today (11 June) in the journal Earth System Science Data. From this year onwards, the production of the IGCC has been contracted to the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the study was conducted by an international team comprising over 70 scientists from 56 institutions and 17 different countries. 

The lead author of the study and director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, Piers Forster, described the indicators as “the Earth’s energy imbalance, which measures how fast heat is accumulating in the climate system, and provides a crucial measure of the pace of climate change.” Commenting on the worrying findings of the report, Forster warned: “Without human influence, it (IGCC) should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record high, doubling in recent decades.” 

The data shows that global greenhouse gas emissions reached an all-time high. In 2024, 56.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide were emitted into the atmosphere, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, while 2025 was also the third-warmest year on record. The study also highlights that the rate of anthropogenic warming remains at an all-time high of approximately 0.27 °C per decade. Consequently, ocean temperatures are rising, land-based glaciers are melting, and the rate of global sea-level rise is accelerating.

On this subject, the head of research at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Aimée Slangen, noted that “by 2025, the global sea level rise had reached a new record of 23 cm since 1901, at a rate of around 1.8 mm per year“. At first glance, “this may seem a modest figure, but even a change of this magnitude is increasing coastal flooding in low-lying areas around the world”, she warned. 

The report introduced a new indicator: the number of days with “marine heatwaves.” In 2025, 65 days were marked by these waves, and, as explained by June-Yi Lee, professor at the Climate Science Research Centre at Pusan National University, the number “has more than tripled between 1991 and 2025“. This is alarming because “these events damage marine ecosystems, threaten food production, the economy and coastal protection,” and intensify “extreme weather events on land,” Lee explained. 

In this context, the remaining carbon budget – the total amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted if we want to keep global warming below 1.5°C – is estimated at 130 billion tons of CO2 from the start of 2026. This central estimate will be exhausted in about three years at current CO2 emissions levels.

“Although greenhouse gas emissions are not rising as rapidly as they did in the 2000s, this year’s findings continue to show the extent and speed at which the climate is changing due to human activity, highlighting the need for society to massively step up decarbonisation efforts during this critical decade,” the speakers emphasised. In particular, senior researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Chris Smith, warned: “This year’s IGCC involved over 40 global datasets, many of which are now at risk because of funding decisions.” He therefore called for “concerted international action and coordination to ensure the continuity of observations of the climate. Without this, future assessments will be much more difficult at a time when urgent climate action is needed,” he concluded.