Brussels – Fewer migrants are arriving in Europe, but the crossing has never been so deadly. In the first four months of 2026, while arrivals plummeted along some of the main routes to the continent, the number of deaths and missing persons rose sharply, doubling in the central Mediterranean and tripling in the eastern Mediterranean compared with the same period in 2025.
This is the paradox highlighted in the new data published today (12 August) by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) in the report Global Overview of Migration Routes (January to April 2026). The analysis, which brings together data from the IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), the Missing Migrants Project, the Regional Data Hubs and government partners, provides a snapshot of migration routes that a combination of extreme weather, conflicts, economic pressures, and changes in migration policies has profoundly transformed.
The tragedy in the Central Mediterranean
The most striking figure relates to the Central Mediterranean route. Between January and April 2026, arrivals fell by 46 per cent, dropping to 8,577. During the same period, however, 821 people died or went missing along the route: an increase of 111 per cent compared with the first four months of 2025. More than half of the victims, 430, were recorded in January alone, when Cyclone Harry hit the region. The extreme weather event made crossings—already characterised by precarious vessels and difficult sailing conditions—even more dangerous.
The situation is no better along the eastern Mediterranean route. Here, deaths have risen by 259 per cent, reaching 244 victims. Many of these are linked to shipwrecks that occurred during sea crossings in the waters around Crete. “Behind each of these figures is a family waiting for news that will never come,” said Ugochi Daniels, Deputy Director-General of the IOM. “As journeys become longer and more dangerous, saving lives at sea and on land remains a shared responsibility, which no country can tackle alone.”
Arrivals across the Atlantic plummet, while those heading for Ceuta and Melilla rise
The situation is radically different along the other routes leading to Europe. On the West African Atlantic route, arrivals in Spain have plummeted by 78 per cent, totalling 2,276 people. But even in this case, the fall in arrivals does not correspond to a reduction in risks. The IOM reports that departure points have shifted further and further south along the West African coast. This shift lengthens the crossings and increases the time spent on the open sea, exposing migrants to even greater risks.
The trend on the western Mediterranean route was the opposite, with arrivals in Spain rising by 66 per cent to 5,647. This growth is driven primarily by the rise in land crossings into the Spanish exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, which have tripled compared with the same period in 2025. This is a particularly significant figure in light of the migration crisis which, in recent weeks, has once again brought Ceuta to the forefront of the European debate, putting pressure on relations between Member States regarding the management of the EU’s external borders.
Global migration routes: conflicts and new migratory pressures
However, the IOM report paints a much broader picture of migration than the European one. On the eastern route from the Horn of Africa, arrivals in Yemen rose by 9 per cent, reaching 70,200, in line with seasonal patterns. In Central America, by contrast, northbound movements through the Darién region of Panama have fallen to almost zero: just 135 crossings were recorded in the first four months of the year.
Geopolitical crises are also affecting migration flows. The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, which began in late February, led to mass displacement in Lebanon and an increase in cross-border returns to Syria between March and April. At the same time, pressure on labour migration and remittance flows has grown in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. “Attention tends to focus on a few routes, but almost half of the world’s 304 million international migrants live within their own region,” Daniels pointed out. For the IOM, having reliable data on changes to migration routes is therefore essential for shaping more effective migration policies.
The figures for the first four months of 2026 thus paint a picture that is anything but straightforward: fewer people are arriving in Europe, but this does not mean that fewer people are risking their lives to reach it. The routes are changing, becoming longer and more dangerous, while the decline in arrivals risks obscuring another reality: that of increasingly deadly journeys.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
