Brussels – By the time new gas from the Barents Sea could reach the European market, demand for fossil fuels would already have fallen sharply, according to an analysis by WWF-Norway, published as the EU moves toward a decision on its stance on new Arctic oil and gas projects.
It takes Norway an average of 18.5 years from field discovery to the start of production, according to data analysed in the report. Assuming that a new reserve is discovered in 2027, it would not come on stream “before 2045”, according to the press release. Even assuming faster development times and new export infrastructure, additional gas supplies from the Barents Sea would remain limited before 2040.
Infrastructure is another factor holding back the potential contribution to European energy security. The Hammerfest LNG plant is currently the only export route for gas from the Barents Sea and its capacity is expected to be fully utilised by existing resources for decades to come. A new pipeline to the Norwegian offshore network has been considered, but the project is currently on hold due to a lack of the necessary resources to support the investment. According to the six scenarios set out in the WWF report, bringing the pipeline’s completion forward to 2034, rather than 2040, would add only 0.3–0.5 billion cubic metres to the estimated exports from the Barents Sea in 2040. Even including undiscovered resources, the infrastructure would still operate well below its capacity.
The report also highlights the expected decline in European demand. EU demand for fossil gas could fall from around 329 billion cubic metres in 2024 to around 85 billion in 2040, according to analyses cited by WWF Norway, in a scenario consistent with the European target of reducing emissions by 90 per cent by that date.
Norway is currently the EU’s main gas supplier, meeting around 30 per cent of European demand. Oslo has, however, asked Brussels to reconsider its opposition to new projects in the Barents Sea, arguing that they could strengthen European energy security. The EU’s 2021 Arctic policy, on the other hand, stipulates that oil, coal, and gas should remain underground in the Arctic regions and proposes working towards an international agreement to prevent new hydrocarbon developments in the area.
“Europe is today being asked to change its Arctic policy today for gas that may not arrive until around 2045,” said Karoline Andaur, chief executive of WWF Norway. The organisation believes that renewables, electrification and energy efficiency can reduce Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels more quickly.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
