Socialists win regional elections in Catalonia. It’s alliance rebus with an eye on the holding up of the national government

Brussels – The victory of the Socialist Party of Catalonia(PSC) in regional elections opens up unpredictable scenarios that could impact the fragile compromise holding up Pedro Sanchez‘s national government. For the first time since 2003, there is no margin for a majority by independence parties in Spain’s autonomous region. However, the PSC will need to negotiate with them to find the numbers to govern in Barcelona.

The first-place finish of the vote on Sunday, May 12, went to the Socialists led by Salvador Illa, who, with 27.96 percent of the votes, will get 42 seats out of the total 135 in the Catalan Parliament. By contrast, Junts per Catalunya, the independence party of former secessionist President Carles Puigdemont, stopped at 21.64 percent and 35 seats. The third most-voted political force was Esquerra Republicana (ERC), the other center-left independence party led by outgoing president Pere Aragonès, which got 13.68 percent of the vote and 20 seats. Following were the two non-independence right-wing parties, the Popular Party and Vox, which got 10.97 and 7.96 percent, or 15 and 11 seats, respectively. While the Comuns-Sumar left did not go beyond 5.82 percent, securing only six seats.

Immediately after the polls closed, the guessing game of the possible alliances started. With its 42 seats, the PSC remains well short of the absolute 68-seat majority in the regional parliament. The PSC aims to reach an agreement with the other progressive formations — the ERC and Comuns-Sumar independents, with whom it would secure precisely 68 seats. While Sumar immediately confirmed its willingness to negotiate an agreement for a tripartite regional government, the ERC’s leader already declared — in light of what for Aragones is an all-out defeat — his intention to “respect the will” of the Catalan people and “work from the opposition.”

That is why there is the possibility of a stalemate similar to the August and September 2023 national elections, when the Popular Party – which came out the winner at the polls – failed to achieve a majority in Parliament and, after weeks of controversy and negotiations, Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez secured the support of the Catalan pro-independence parties to remain in power, and promising in return amnesty for those who, like Junts leader Puigdemont, were indicted and convicted after Catalonia’s 2017 independence referendum.

Puigdemont called on Aragones to reject a possible pact with the Socialists to “build a solid government of pure Catalan obedience,” stressing the need for pro-independence forces to sit down for dialogue to “rebuild bridges” and reflect on the effects of the lack of “a shared strategy” that led to the PSC victory. The Junts leader, who has been a member of the European Parliament and who fled to Belgium in 2017, saw a new window of opportunity to put Sanchez in check: the situation in Catalonia “is no different” from that in the national parliament, he said on the sidelines of the vote. Once again, the Socialists need the Catalan Independents to govern. The risk, otherwise, is going back to the polls, something that would only favor the Popular Party, which is up sharply – 12 more seats – than in previous elections. Then there is always the bogeyman that, should Sanchez fail to hand over the keys of the government of Catalonia to Puigdemont, the latter could make him capitulate to Madrid.

But the Socialist leader has already been inundated with criticism at home for his soft stance toward Catalan independents. There is another combination in the alliance guessing game that would allow it to reach the 68-seat majority needed to govern the region: a highly unlikely coalition with the center-right of the Populars and Vox.  Even then, Sanchez would have to watch his back in Madrid because such a move would not go well with his Podemos and Sumar allies.