Portugal between new elections and new uncertainties

Brussels – Portugal, it’s the moment of truth. On Sunday (May 18), the country is called to elections to lead to the formation of a new government after a no-confidence vote in conservative Luis Montenegro. For the Iberian republic, in the EU since 1986, these are the third elections since 2022, reflecting a season of political instability. According to polls, the outgoing premier, Montenegro, is in the lead with his Democratic Alliance coalition (a coalition that brings together the Social Democratic Party, People’s Party, and People’s Monarchist Party), ahead of the Socialist Party.

The vote is to renew the Assembly of the Republic, Portugal’s 230-member single-chamber parliament. At least 116 seats are needed to secure a majority, a goal that does not seem within anyone’s reach. Specifically, polls show AD at 31.9 per cent, PS at 25.2 per cent, and the right-wing Chega party at 19.1 per cent. Should the polls hold, the eventual victory still would not guarantee Montenegro the numbers for a majority, to be sought after the vote. Portugal adopts a proportional representation system, which means that for a party to gain a parliamentary majority, it must get at least 42 per cent of the vote, a threshold neither of the two main parties can achieve. So, in the background, there remains a scenario of new ungovernability, with a situation similar to the one before the dissolution of Parliament.