Denmark, voters punish PM Frederiksen’s Social Democrats shift to the right in local elections

Brussels – Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen would have preferred a different birthday present. Instead, what she had to unwrap today (19 November) was the result of last night’s administrative elections, which brought her Social Democratic Party (SD) to an abrupt halt, especially in Copenhagen, where it was dethroned for the first time in 122 years. 

It had not happened since 1903 that the Danish capital was not under the control of the centre-left, and since its introduction in 1938, the office of mayor has always been a prerogative of the Social Democrats. Now, however, the helm is in the hands of Sisse Marie Welling, the leading face of the Socialist People’s Party (Socialistisk Folkeparti, SF), which garnered 17.9 per cent of the vote, almost seven points more than in the last election in 2021. 

In fact, SF came in second behind the eco-socialists of the Unity List (Enhedslisten, EL), who were confirmed as the leading party with 22.1 per cent (albeit slightly down from 24.6 per cent four years ago). The agreement between SF, EL, and other minor partners was finalized this morning: “We have written history at city hall,” Welling said enthusiastically. The social democratic challenger, Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil, a close ally of the premier, remained pinned at 12.7 per cent, a vertical collapse from her 17.2 per cent in 2021.

In a symbolic slap in the face, Rosenkrantz-Theil was not even invited to participate in the negotiations to form a new government in Copenhagen. The forces on the left of the SD deliberately excluded the Social Democrats from negotiations, aiming to create a “green and progressive majority.” 

The co-chair of the European Green Party, Vula Tsetsi, celebrated the “historic victory” of Welling and her Green-Red alliance, describing hers as “a successful campaign focused on housing, family policies, and green development.” Copenhagen thus becomes the fifth environmentally-led EU capital, after Riga (Latvia), Amsterdam (Netherlands), Budapest (Hungary), and Zagreb (Croatia). 

On the other hand, the SD underperformed across the country: it lost 19 of its 44 outgoing mayors while retaining control of several large cities. Although it remains the leading party nationwide, it lost significant ground, dropping from 28.4 to 23.2 per cent of the vote. Much better, the liberal-conservatives of Venstre (V) ousted the Social Democrats as the party with the most mayors (39, five more than in 2021). In rural areas, the far right has asserted itself, especially the Danish Democrats (DD). 

Local urgencies were certainly driving the voters, above all the unsustainable cost of housing (rents in Copenhagen have risen by 20 per cent in the last year). But it was also clearly the major issues of national politics that drove citizens to the polling stations—the voter turnout increased compared to four years ago, reaching 69.2 per cent—and in several cases, the electoral operations continued well after the official end of voting at 8pm.

Above all, the hard line adopted by Frederiksen on migration seems not to have paid off. The Statminister, among the few heads of government from the socialist family left in the EU, has made an iron fist against undesirable human beings a hallmark of her second term.

Up to the point of welding an unnatural axis with the Italian premier Giorgia Meloni—with whom she has called into question the European Convention on Human Rights—and the president of the EU executive, Ursula von der Leyen, who has long taken up the battle over the returns of illegal immigrants—a shift to the right that apparently did not please the progressive inner-city electorate. 

The Social Democratic leader took “responsibility” for the polling debacle: “We expected losses, but the drop was greater than expected,” she admitted, describing her party’s result as “unsatisfactory.” Arguably, this will not challenge her government. But it certainly provides prompts for reflection on the way forward in view of the next general election, which must take place by October 2026.