The EU Commission prepares for the effects of the US and Israeli war on Iran: focus on security and energy

Brussels – The European Commission is focusing on the potential knock-on effects of the war launched by its allies, the United States and Israel, against Iran. Ursula von der Leyen convened her commissioners today (2 March) in “security college” mode, and the EU executive has come up with a course of action, which will be guided by “two priorities”: “Supporting Member States and protecting EU citizens from the adverse consequences of the ongoing events.” 

In a note circulated on the sidelines of the meeting, Brussels lists the scenarios to watch out for and sets out a response framework. First and foremost, the Commission “is stepping up its support for Member States’ evacuation and repatriation efforts, including through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism and the Emergency Response Coordination Centre, in close cooperation with EU delegations.” 

Special attention is being paid to the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, through which a large portion of world trade (and 20 per cent of global oil supplies) passes and where the EU’s ASPIDES mission is already operating, with the task of protecting European shipping routes from attacks by Iranian proxies, primarily the Houthis in Yemen. The Commission “is stepping up monitoring and intensifying coordination with airlines, shipping companies, and national authorities.” 

With oil prices already skyrocketing, von der Leyen has convened “an energy task force with Member States, in liaison with the International Energy Agency” for this week. On the internal security front, the Commission “is maintaining heightened vigilance and close cooperation with Europol

(the European Police Office, ed.) and Member States
regarding potential internal security risks.” Brussels is also preparing to close its doors to a potential increase in migrant arrivals, “enhancing preparedness through closer monitoring of trends and reinforced cooperation with relevant UN agencies and partner countries.”