Brussels – 2025 was a “turning point” for the sales and price trends of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), thanks to the entry into force of new limits on carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) of cars sold by each European car manufacturer. For this reason, the scenario that must be avoided is the potential loosening of the 2030 CO₂ targets — proposed by the European Commission last December — which, in addition to reversing the 2035 phase‑out of combustion engines, also extends to 2030–2032 the flexibility system introduced last year to help manufacturers meet the targets and avoid the risk of fines. This is the central theme of the new report on the European BEV market, published today (12 March) by Transport & Environment, the leading European NGO active in automotive decarbonisation.
The emission limits mentioned in the report were introduced by EU Regulation 631 of 2019, which requires each car manufacturer to comply with an average threshold for CO2 emissions from vehicles sold on the European market. The target is set in an incremental manner: from 2020 to 2024, it was 95 g of CO2 per km, in 2025 it rose to 93.6 g, in 2030 it should reach 49.5 g, and finally, in 2035, the electrification of the automotive sector should be completed and the production of combustion vehicles completely eliminated. The study defines how to maintain these limits as “the main driving force behind the BEV market,” capable of transforming the sale of electric vehicles from a commercial choice to an economic necessity: faced with the obligation to increase the number of BEVs sold on the European market (under penalty of a fine of 95 euros for each gram of CO2 in excess), the continent’s leading car manufacturers have had to expand their production of electric cars from the traditional luxury model sector to the A, B, and C segments, which are cheaper and more accessible to the average consumer. The result, as the report’s figures show, has been an increase in sales and a gradual reduction in prices.
In 2025, the BEV market experienced a “significant acceleration,” reaching 19 per cent of total sales, and forecasts indicate that this percentage is set to grow further over the next two years (23 per cent in 2026 and 28 per cent in 2027). On the price front, the data is equally positive. After the five-year period 2020-2024, during which electric vehicle prices rose by around 5,000 euros (reaching 44,600 euros in 2024), 2025 was the first year in which the average cost fell, reaching 42,700 euros (-4 per cent). The most significant reduction was in the B segment of small cars (-13 per cent), and it is expected that, with the CO2 targets for 2030 remaining unchanged, price parity with equivalent combustion vehicles will be achieved in four years. Large and premium models (segments D and E) have already achieved this goal.
It is precisely in reference to the forecasts for the next five years that the reasoning contained in the report encounters a major “but.” The increasing sales and decreasing price trend for BEVs risks being interrupted and reversed if the Commission’s proposal to relax emission limits becomes reality. With less pressure, car manufacturers could slow the electrification of their fleets and return to focusing solely on the exclusive, expensive luxury-car segment. This would trigger a domino effect, with a new price increase and an overall reduction in BEV sales. T&E figures indicate that the average price of electric vehicles across segments A to C could rise by around 2,300 euros in 2030, rather than reaching price parity with combustion models.
What exactly do the Commission’s proposed amendments entail? First of all, an initial change, concerning the flexibility requested by car manufacturers to avoid the risk of fines for non-compliance with targets, was approved in 2025 with the EU Regulation 1214. The calculation of the average emissions not to be exceeded for the five-year period 2025-2029 is no longer carried out on a year-by-year basis, but spread over a three-year period. According to T&E, this means slowing the pace at which car manufacturers will have to electrify their fleets, allowing them to exceed the limit in the first part of the three-year period and then make up for it in the second. What the EU executive now seems to be proposing is to apply the same criterion for the next 2030-2034 five-year period, calculating the average of 49.5 g of CO2 per km over the three years from 2030 to 2032. Even more radical is the proposal by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) to extend the calculation of the average to the entire 2030-2034 five-year period and to be less strict in calculating the emissions of plug-in hybrids, “even though these vehicles pollute more or less as much as traditional combustion cars,” T&E explains.
“If even some of these requests were to be accepted, it would open up an extremely worrying scenario that would delay investment and price reductions in the BEV sector, weakening ambitions and slowing down the entire process of electrifying the European car market,” Lucien Mathieu, director of T&E’s Auto Department, explained. For this reason, the NGO is calling for Regulation 1214 to remain unchanged: “The transition to electric vehicles remains the only viable path for safeguarding the climate and the EU’s industrial competitiveness,” he stressed.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
