Slovenia goes to the polls amid a scandal over alleged espionage against the government

Brussels – This weekend, all eyes in Brussels will be on Ljubljana. Amid the escalation in the Middle East, the energy crisis and the deadlock over support for Ukraine, the general election in this small Alpine member state could trigger another political earthquake in the EU. For by choosing between the outgoing Prime Minister, the liberal Robert Golob, and the former three-time Prime Minister, the sovereigntist Janez Janša, Slovenian citizens will ultimately decide whether to keep their country firmly in the pro-European camp of Macron, Merz and Tusk, or to move it into the already substantial Eurosceptic camp, alongside Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. What is more, the vote in Slovenia will take place in the midst of a scandal involving alleged espionage against the government by an Israeli company. 

The Prime Minister’s party, the Freedom Movement (GS), appears to be staging a comeback. Having consistently trailed Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) in the polls, Golob now holds a slight lead, according to a survey conducted by the Mediana agency for Pop TV, RTV Slovenia and the daily newspaper Delo. PolitPro, however, still puts the sovereignist leader ahead. The gap has narrowed, in any case, after months in which the ruling party saw its support drop dramatically due to repeated scandals and a broader shift to the right in Slovenian politics. 

It will be a neck-and-neck race between Golob and Janša, but more than the winner, what will count is the number of MPs that the two coalitions manage to get into the Parliament in Ljubljana. A party needs 46 seats to form a government. There are five other political groups likely to clear the 4 per cent threshold: the joint Christian-conservative list comprising New Slovenia, the People’s Party and Fokus; the Social Democrats and Anže Logar’s Democrats; the joint Levica/Left and Vesna list; and the Resnica/Truth party.

A victory for Janša, Orbán’s Trump-aligned ally—who in 2021, when he was prime minister, was heavily criticised by the European Parliament for his stance on press freedom and the rule of law—would bolster the bloc of Eurosceptic governments within the EU. Just as Brussels is grappling with the vetoes of Hungary and Slovakia over their support for Ukraine. 

But the matter has become even more complicated: the Slovenian authorities have accused a private intelligence firm, founded by former members of the Israeli army, of helping to leak recordings intended to undermine Prime Minister Robert Golob’s government by linking him to corruption, just days before a crucial national election. The firm is called Black Cube, and the incriminating tapes show prominent figures in Slovenian politics and business—including a former minister—apparently discussing corruption, illegal lobbying, and the misuse of state funds. 

The affair is further inflaming the already heated tone of the election campaign: whilst Janša’s party believes the recordings are proof of corruption at the highest levels of Slovenian society, for Golob’s left-wing coalition, the scandal exposes Janša’s underhand dealings and his collusion with foreign entities to regain power. Janša himself is reported to have admitted to meeting Giora Eiland, former head of Israel’s National Security Council and a member of Black Cube, but claimed not to recall the date. The Slovenian President, Pirc Musar, has intervened with a call for respect for the law and a healthy public debate in the run-up to the elections. 

Yesterday, at the summit of EU heads of state and government, Golob urged the EU to investigate: “I call on the Commission to investigate the reports and refer the matter to the EU Centre for Democratic Resilience for an immediate assessment of the threat,” she said on her arrival. In defence of the liberal prime minister, Emmanuel Macron and the liberal group (Renew) in the European Parliament immediately rallied to his support. The French president was emphatic, denouncing the “obvious interference, disinformation, and actions by third countries.” For the president of Renew, Valérie Hayer, “the indications pointing towards Janez Janša are serious and require a full and transparent investigation, including from a European perspective.” Because “this is not just about Slovenia; it is a European issue.”