Two-thirds of Hungarians trust the EU, but there are divisions over Ukraine and the country’s international stance

Brussels – Despite the tension that has characterised relations between Budapest and Brussels during the sixteen years of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government, 68 per cent of Hungarian voters trust the European Union. This was revealed by the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), as part of a poll which surveyed Hungarians on a range of issues that could prove crucial in determining the outcome of this weekend’s election: not only the country’s relationship with Europe, but also views on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the role of Budapest in the world, judgements on the leaders of the world’s major powers, and key domestic political issues. Around two-thirds of the sample say they “trust” the EU, with 43 per cent of Hungarian citizens hoping to see a “very different” attitude towards Brussels from the government that emerges from this Sunday’s (12 April) elections in Hungary, whilst 25 per cent would be satisfied with “minor changes.” Only 19 per cent of those surveyed would like the new government to maintain the current confrontational approach. 

Even a more complex issue such as joining the Eurozone enjoys fairly significant support: 66 per cent of those surveyed say they are in favour of abandoning the Hungarian forint to adopt the single currency, although in this case the figures among voters for TISZA, the party led by the pro-European centre-right candidate Péter Magyar, are significantly higher (95 per cent) than those of Fidesz (43 per cent), the political party through which Orbán has led repeated clashes with the EU in recent years. 

While these figures may prompt a sigh of relief among European leaders, the same cannot be said for the survey results on the Russia-Ukraine issue. According to the ECFR, “Hungary’s historic opposition to EU actions on Ukraine remains evident,” highlighting what may be the “limits to how constructive the new government can be as a foreign policy partner.” The issue of EU financial support for Kyiv—currently blocked by a veto put forward by Orbán—remains a veritable taboo for a large part of the Hungarian electorate: 85 per cent of Fidesz supporters are opposed to it, but so are 48 per cent of those who will vote for TISZA. Similar percentages apply regarding Ukraine’s accession to the EU, with 83 per cent of Fidesz voters and 40 per cent of TISZA voters opposed to this prospect. Finally, the data on Hungarians’ views of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, speaks volumes: he is viewed negatively by 84 per cent of Orbán’s supporters and by 42 per cent of Magyar’s supporters. 

When asked about their overall view of Budapest’s international standing, TISZA voters are once again aligning themselves with the European Union’s position. A relative majority (40 per cent) views Russia as an adversary and Ukraine as a partner, while 77 per cent would like Hungary to pursue a foreign policy strategy based on closer cooperation with EU institutions and other Member States (only 11 per cent would prefer a balance between the West, Russia, and China; while 4 per cent would choose only Moscow and Beijing and 2 per cent the United States). Those who will vote for Orbán, however, hold a completely different view: for the majority of them, Ukraine is the country’s main enemy, while Russia should be considered a strategic partner by 51 per cent of them. Putin, alongside Trump, is the international leader most favoured by Fidesz voters, who are, however, more divided on what Hungary’s global positioning should be: 25 per cent would like to see an equally positive relationship with the West, Russia, and China; 24 per cent would like to throw themselves fully into the arms of the United States; 16 per cent call for greater rapprochement with the EU and 14 per cent for a strengthening of ties with Moscow and Beijing. 

The foreign policy issues examined by the ECFR survey will inevitably play a part in Sunday’s vote. But when the survey’s respondents were asked to list the key issues at the heart of this election campaign, their answers confirmed that it will be domestic issues—and the solutions proposed by the leaders to tackle them—that will determine the final outcome. For 31 per cent of respondents, the priority is fighting corruption; for 22 per cent, energy security will be decisive; for 18 per cent, the quality of public services; and for 17 per cent, the cost of living. Only 6 per cent, however, will choose whom to vote for based on their view of relations with the EU.