Brussels – A week after the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s election defeat, another country on the European Union’s sensitive eastern flank is preparing to go to the polls. On Sunday, 19 April, early parliamentary elections will take place in Bulgaria, called in February following the resignation of the former head of government, Rosen Zeljazkov. According to the average of the main polls, the clear favourite in this election, with 31 per cent of the vote, is Rumen Radev, who served as President of the Republic from 2016 until January of this year.
Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the electoral alliance comprising three social-democratic parties, of which it is the leader, is expected to secure 31 per cent of the vote. PB would thus secure a relative majority of seats, leading by around ten points over the conservatives of Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), polling at 21 per cent, and the liberals of We Continue the Change (PP), standing at 12 per cent. Further behind, however, are the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), the leading political force of the Turkish minority, credited with 10 per cent of the vote, and the far-right nationalist party Renaissance, which is not expected to exceed 7 per cent. Finally, much like in Hungary, the centre-left could risk being left out of the Bulgarian Parliament: the Socialist Party is hovering just above the 4 per cent threshold.
Sunday’s election will be the eighth in less than five years for one of the Old Continent’s most politically unstable states, due to a particularly fragmented party system that often produces fragile and quarrelsome coalitions and short-lived governments. The executive led by Zeljazkov, a member of GERB, was one such government. Appointed Prime Minister following the parliamentary elections of October 2024, Zeljazkov was forced to resign in December 2025 after weeks of public protests against the budget law passed by his government.
When, on 19 January 2026, just a few weeks later, Radev also announced his decision to step down as head of state, it immediately became clear that he intended to stand in the upcoming parliamentary elections and run for the post of prime minister.
The reason Radev’s candidacy was, in effect, already on the table before the official confirmation in March is his political history, particularly his role as the main opponent of the GERB-linked power structure (the conservative party was in government almost continuously between 2009 and 2026). After a long and distinguished military career that saw him rise to the position of Air Force Commander, Radev entered politics in 2016, winning the presidential election as the Socialist Party’s candidate. After a rather low-key first half of his term, the popularity of Sofia’s former top gun grew significantly in 2020, following the serious corruption scandal involving Bulgaria’s then Prime Minister and founder of GERB, Bojko Borisov. The population took to the streets for several weeks, and, in this context, the President of the Republic quickly became a symbol of integrity and institutional seriousness, speaking out publicly in support of the protests.
“The oligarchy is deeply entrenched in the country’s economic and social life. It is a pyramid scheme that systematically drains society while ensuring its own impunity through control of institutions, political parties, elections, the media, and businesses,” explained Radev at the launch of his bid to become head of government, emphasising that the fight against corruption will be at the heart of his work as Prime Minister, just as it has been during his years as President of the Republic.
While it is not difficult to imagine that there will be full alignment with the EU on this point, there are other issues on which Radev’s potential election could force Brussels to once again deal with a hostile head of government, just a few days after it managed to rid itself of the thorn in its side that was Viktor Orbán’s euroscepticism.
Above all, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. As early as 2021, before the war began, Radev described the Ukrainian region of Crimea—illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014—as “currently Russian.” Subsequently, in July 2023, he clashed on live television with Kyiv’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, stating that “sending weapons and more weapons will not resolve the war” and arguing for the need to reopen dialogue with Moscow. Radev also criticised the current Bulgarian interim government, led by the independent Andrej Giuro, for signing a ten-year cooperation agreement with Ukraine: “They are dragging us into war,” thundered the former head of state.
Another potential area of contention concerns European integration. During the negotiations for Bulgaria’s entry into the Eurozone—which took place on 1 January this year—Radev has never made any secret of his opposition to this option, expressly calling for the Bulgarian people to be given the opportunity to have their say via a referendum.
“Does Radev want a stronger Bulgaria within a stronger Europe, or a Bulgaria that follows the Orbán model, acting as a Trojan horse within the EU and stalling the integration process?” asked the former Liberal deputy prime minister, Assen Vassilev, rhetorically. It is likely that the same question is being asked in the corridors of Brussels, as they await a response from the ballot boxes in Sofia.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
