Ireland’s next Taoiseach could be a liberal

Brussels – The gamble of Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris to bring forward the election round to remain head of government in Dublin did not pay off. With the counting nearly complete, his Fine Gael party is behind its governing allies, the Fianna Fáil Liberals. Internal coalition turnover is on the horizon, with former Taoiseach Liberal Micheál Martin likely to take over from Harris at the helm. However, the two center-right parties must first seek a third ally to achieve a majority, given the collapse of the Greens.

According to the data released by the Irish Times, former premier Martin’s Fianna Fáil was the most-voted party with 21.86 percent of the vote, ahead of Harris’s Fine Gael at 20.8 percent. The two parties that have succeeded each other in government since Ireland gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1921 managed to keep behind Sinn Fein, the left-wing Unionist party heir to the political wing of the IRA, which was projected to have a slight lead before the election. Sinn Fein, led by Louise McDonald, stopped at 19 percent. “The center has held out,” said a satisfied Paschal Donohoe, president of the Eurogroup and one of Fine Gael’s leading figures, who was also re-elected on Sunday. “But we still have a lot of work to do,” he added.

So far, 162 out of the 174 seats were allocated in the Dáil, the lower house of Parliament in Dublin. Fianna Fáil won 43, while Fine Gael and Sinn Fein each secured 36. The two major center-right parties will likely stop within a handful of seats of the 88 needed to govern. Having both ruled out a partnership with Sinn Fein, they will have to identify the new third party of the executive. The Greens completed the coalition with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in the Harris government. However, the Irish Green Party–following a pattern already seen in France, Germany, and the European elections in June– collapsed, winning only one seat in the Dáil.

The most likely candidates are the Labor Party or the Social Democrats, who won 9 and 11 seats, respectively. In light of the results, both of these parties have been cautious so far, not explicitly ruling out entering a coalition with the liberals and the center-right but saying they want to talk to each other and other parties first. While open to the possibility, Labor leader Ivana Bacik said her priority is “to build a platform on the left.” Alternatively, Martin and Harris will have to seek a common axis with some of the 23 independent candidates who will sit in the Dáil.

With Ireland marked on the one hand by an economy that thrives, thanks to overall favorable taxation that attracts hi-tech giants, and on the other by a deep housing crisis and rising cost of living, voter turnout was historically low at 59.7 percent, the lowest in the last 100 years, since 1923. For the first time, the immigration issue – perceived by the population as closely linked to the housing crisis – was also in the spotlight of the election campaign, with the center-right parties promising a harsh crackdown and Sinn Fein playing catch-up.

The Liberal Micheál Martin – current foreign minister in the Harris government – who will be able to claim the post of prime minister, which he already held before Harris took office in April 2024, is likely to answer first-hand to Ireland’s 5.4 million citizens. It will change little in Dublin; the two parties overlap on many points of their programs. In Brussels, one more liberal prime minister will slightly reduce the European People’s Party hegemony among EU heads of state and government.