From battery recycling, more than 2 million electric cars produced in the EU in 2030

Brussels –The electric car industry could benefit from battery recycling. By 2030, recovery would help reduce Europe’s dependence on imports of critical minerals for batteries by up to a quarter, according to the Transport & Environment (T&E) study, Europe’s leading transport decarbonization organization.

“If Europe can confirm and stick to its plans on battery recycling, it can significantly reduce its dependence on imported critical metals,” said Andrea Boraschi, director of T&E Italia. “The volumes expected from the recycling supply chain will be able to guarantee the European industry sufficient materials for the production of millions of electric cars,” Boraschi continued. In terms of numbers, by 2030, materials from end-of-life batteries and from the waste of the gigafactories (huge factories involved in producing batteries) could be enough to produce up to 2.4 million electric vehicles in Europe.

Considering the current automotive industry crisis  in Europe, the results of the study are particularly interesting for the EU. Clearly, they show how recycling can be linked to enhanced productivity and how it can strengthen the European economy itself. At the same time, according to T&E, the risk of not capturing the full potential is very high, so both the EU and the UK will need to strengthen and protect industrial recycling projects, which risk cancellation.

Considering the specific elements, almost complete self-sufficiency for cobalt is estimated in 2040 with battery recycling. Along with this, with the recovery of spent cells and production waste, it would reach 14 per cent for lithium, 16 per cent for nickel, and 17 per cent for manganese, all of which are functional materials for electric car production. The percentages, according to the study, could even rise after 2030.

T&E estimates that the volumes obtained from recycling would avoid twelve new mines by 2040 and globally, four of lithium, three of nickel, four of cobalt, and one of manganese. The environmental benefits would be considerable, given the consistent negative impact of mining on water, soil, and biodiversity. In addition, locating recycling activities in Europe could decrease the carbon footprint of lithium by nearly 20 per cent.

Europe needs to support its recycling industry, which, being stagnant or underdeveloped, is at risk of losing nearly half of Europe’s reuse capacity. The T&E study’s suggestion for the EU and UK is to focus on supporting recycling in policies and funding programs.

In the European Commission Policy Guidelines 2024–2029, a circular economy legislation is expected to be discussed. The aim of the law should be to help “generate demand for secondary materials in the market and create a single waste market, especially for critical raw materials,” the Commission document says. At the same time, the circular economy should support the expansion of European industry while limiting exports of waste from batteries and simplifying the internal EU movement of materials extracted from spent batteries.

It is clear that substantial changes are needed and, in parallel, that there are difficulties in Europe to fully develop the circular economy. “Neither the EU nor the UK is yet ready to seize the opportunity to recycle materials related to the battery supply chain,” commented Director Boraschi. “Almost half of the planned recycling capacity is at risk due to high energy costs, lack of technical expertise, or financial support,” Boraschi continued. In conclusion, he called for considering “battery recycling on par with any other clean technology, that is, as a key solution in the framework of decarbonization,” with dedicated and appropriate regulations.

After the German crisis with Volkswagen, the (consequent) one with Audi Brussels, and Italy limping, new perspectives are opening for the auto sector, whereby the green transition and electric car production could connect even more closely, strengthening the European position on both fronts.