Stop being afraid of Trump

In the European Union, Donald Trump’s return to the White House has generally triggered a wave of panic. A few governments have welcomed it, those always looking for an edge against their duties to the Union, from which they benefit enormously by disregarding the pact that binds them to the Twenty-Seven for domestic political reasons like Hungary. These are countries that can create annoyances, not much more.

The real problem is the attitude of many leaders of the big countries, even some of the EU leadership itself. The issue that touches most is defence: “How will we do without the U.S. umbrella?” But also, “How will we maintain the vitality of our international trade without a good relationship with the U.S.?” After consciously sweeping the ashes under the rug for decades, many now seem to have slipped on that rug only since last November, or some since January 20, the day of the inauguration.

The union is now paying for decades of mistakes, which is true, but everyone shares them somewhat. But, let be it, the error was there, and spending time analysing is perhaps more useful for academics and analysts than for decision-makers. Decision-makers need to determine the response to be made, but stop panicking and stop thinking that the answers must come hand over fist within hours of Trump’s provocations. The European Union claims to be the World’s largest single market, it is (admittedly, less and less) an area of great wealth and capability, it is a fundamental ganglion of international foreign policy, which not even the United States can disregard, particularly if it wants to confront Trump’s number one enemy, China. Now, a lot of people are saying, more or less, “In order not to anger Trump, let’s start buying U.S. weapons, increase spending and give money to the U.S.” Hogwash. It would mean repeating, in a “MAGA” key, the mistakes of the past: buying weapons from the U.S. would only confirm, if not exacerbate, our dependence on the U.S. It would mean entrusting our means of defence to their hands and tying our own hands. This is what Trump wants: to keep Europe dependent on the U.S., but this time gaining not only enormous clout in international politics but also good money. On the trade side, the accounts are different; Europeans have a surplus in goods, and probably the U.S. has it in services. The math is a lot, but maybe you can say there is a slight European advantage. Which means that we are an indispensable market for Washington.

In short, we need to shun panic and stand with the consciousness that we have strengths and potentials that we need to know how to develop, direct better to maintain our economic strength, and find ourselves a worthy place in the World. On the defence front, some small steps have been initiated, such as joint procurements between countries, which would promote EU production and interoperability of the Armed Forces. But there is much to be done, and already knowing this helps; as Mario Draghi explained today in the European Parliament about our defence system, “the fragmentation of industrial capacity along national lines prevents us from achieving the necessary scale. Even if we are collectively the third largest country in the world in terms of spending, we would not be able to meet an increase in defence spending through our manufacturing capacity. Our national defence systems are neither interoperable nor standardized in some key parts of the supply chain. This is one of many examples where the EU is less than the sum of its parts.”

Not everyone wants to be there, there are those who think that Trump can give attention to some small country (as we all are in Europe, small or very small) and take some advantage of it in the immediate term. This is not the case; Trump’s view is only that of force, military or economic, and on that level, the Union must know that it is able to respond. For now, some have begun to do so, but there is room for everyone.