Member states bring Kallas back to earth: Ukraine plan slashed from 40 billion to 5 billion

Brussels – The harsh reality of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs: more a tightrope walker between the different sensitivities of member countries than a true policymaker. Kaja Kallas is realizing this at her own expense. Her first initiative – 40 billion in military support plan for Ukraine —seems stillborn. The resistance of several capitals — in substance and method — forced the head of EU diplomacy to scale back the commitment: “The realistic plan is to provide ammunition in the amount of 5 billion,” she said upon her arrival at the EU summit this morning (March 20).

“There are problems” with the 40 billion euro requested to foreign ministers for a broad range of military capabilities, she admitted. Member states’ capitals have already discussed and amended Kallas’ initiative twice. A first version presented in February called for member states to provide Ukraine with 20 billion euros in urgent military aid, with participation rates based on gross national income. The proposal was rejected due to resistance from some of the bloc’s largest economies, primarily Italy, France, and Spain. In the second draft, she modified the distribution criterion to make it less unfavorable to large countries, emphasizing voluntary contributions instead. However, Kallas doubled the total amount to consider the possibility of total US disengagement from Ukraine.

“We proposed the Gross National Income criterion, which considers the country’s economy. At the same time, we also know there are concerns about budget deficits in most European countries,” Kallas explained to reporters. End of story, because “if we cannot decide now for the whole upcoming year, let’s decide on the short term, which is the immediate need” for ammunition for Ukraine. The “realistic” plan — the one we are “actually working on” — is the 5 billion for munitions.

The problem, however, is not only in the substance and terms of the mechanism for coordinating bilateral efforts that Kallas envisioned, which diplomatic sources describe as “very flimsy” and which the Italian deputy prime minister, Antonio Tajani, downgraded this morning to an “ancillary project.” Perplexities – if not outright irritation – of the European chancelleries are reportedly related to the method: one source explained that the liberal Estonian still behaves as if she were the prime minister of the small Baltic republic, without paying much attention to the delicate balances and different sensitivities of the 27 member states in foreign policy. The initiative for Ukraine is an example: Kallas presented it as a proposal to adopt without first seeking agreement with the diplomatic bodies of the member countries. In the end, what suffers is the European unity that Brussels is doing everything it can to avoid unraveling.

In any case, “there is a desire on the part of many countries to fully understand what this is all about,” Tajani said from the European People’s Party meeting ahead of the leaders’ summit. In the latest version of the European Council conclusions, which the heads of state and government will approve today, the reference to Kallas’ plan remained among the “initiatives aimed at strengthening EU military support for Ukraine.” It recalls that it is a coordination effort for “increased support from member states and other participating states on a voluntary basis, particularly regarding large-caliber artillery, ammunition, and missiles.”