Defence, the Twenty-Seven aim to coordinate on the increase in military expenditure decided at NATO

Brussels – Nothing new under the sun in Brussels, where the Chiefs of State and Government of the Twenty-Seven met today. (26 June) for a summit that, despite the number of plates on the leaders’ table, did not foresee any major shake-ups compared to the political line of recent months. The gathering led by António Costa began the discussions by talking about defence and security, after a last-minute change in the agenda due to unforeseen needs of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was due to connect remotely in the morning.

On this issue, the leaders managed to adopt their conclusions as a group of 27, including Viktor Orbán‘s Hungary. After all, these are not particularly strong resolutions. Not even the letter signed by Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas on the eve of the summit, which set the course in this area so crucial in the current historical phase, contained any great novelties.

The Berlaymont number one and her deputy indicate as priorities the comprehensive use of all existing instruments to “boost investment in defence capabilities” (such as the safeguard clause of the Stability Pact, already activated by 16 countries, and loans from the 150 billion SAFE Fund), the construction of a pan-European ‘true defence market’ to strengthen the industrial base of the Twenty-Seven (an objective that passes through the approval of the EDIP programme, currently under discussion by the co-legislators), continue to support Ukraine and its military industry and, finally, focus on partnerships with third countries.

Thus, too, the European Council emphasises the need to “continue to substantially increase Europe’s defence and security spending, and to invest better together.” According to an EU official, the Council instructed the Commission and the High Representative to present a roadmap to achieve the goal of common defence readiness by the end of the decade.

In addition to the ReArm Europe plan (including extensive use of the Safe fund), the reference point for the 27 is above all the commitment made by EU members who are also part of NATO (23 out of 27 states) to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035, as set out in black and white at the summit in The Hague held yesterday and the day before.

Most leaders declared themselves satisfied with the summit’s outcome, albeit with the usual nuances. For Dick Schoof, the host, it was “very positive,” and a “great result” was achieved. Meanwhile, his Belgian counterpart, Bart De Wever, understands that “it is necessary” to increase defence spending, although he is not enthusiastic about it. But, he argues, “we got the concessions we asked for”: that is, more flexibility, no set path for incremental growth, and the review to 2029.

The one who seems to have taken home the biggest victory in terms of facilitation is Spain’s Pedro Sánchez, who also claimed the goodness of the battle waged in NATO over the new 5 per cent target today. “Spain is a country of solidarity, committed to the member states of the Alliance, but also sovereign,” he said, reiterating that 2.1 per cent of GDP and not the 3.5 per cent sanctioned by the joint declaration signed yesterday by the 32 allies would be enough to meet the capacity targets.

Maintaining the commitment made to NATO, of which the Moncloa tenant assures Madrid remains a reliable member, is “absolutely compatible with the commitment to support and strengthen the welfare state in Spain.” “Deterrence is also social cohesion, not just spending more on defence,” the Socialist leader reasons.

In any case, the chancelleries intend to “coordinate” on the increase of their military budgets, emphasising the need to continue working on the “funding options” and inviting the co-legislators to prioritise defence in the upcoming negotiations on the next multiannual budget (MFF) that will cover the period 2028–2034, as well as in the mid-term review of cohesion policy, and to quickly close the files on the EDIP and the defence Omnibus.

In the conclusions, the Twenty-Seven also call on the European Investment Bank (EIB) to continue its review of the list of assets that cannot get financing (to shorten it, of course), and to “increase the volume of financing” itself, which was already increased last week. More work will need to be done to help companies, especially start-ups and SMEs, increase their production.

In fact, support for ReArm Europe is not exactly unanimous among the EU institutions. The main signs of discontent are in the European Parliament, with MEPs wanting to take Member State governments to the Court of Justice for depriving the Strasbourg chamber of its legislative powers. In the coming weeks, Parliament President Roberta Metsola will have to decide whether to proceed and deal a blow (more political than anything else) to von der Leyen’s continental rearmament plan.