Climate: COP30 begins in Brazil. UN warns: ‘Impossible to meet Paris targets’

Brussels -World leaders have arrived in Belém to kick off the 30th edition of the United Nations Climate Conference. The COP30, hosted by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will formally start work on November 10 and conclude on November 21. Still, today and tomorrow (November 6-7), heads of state and government will meet in the city on the edge of the Amazon rainforest for a series of debates, bilateral meetings, and thematic sessions.

Among those present are several heavyweights from the Old Continent, including French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while a trio represents the twelve-star club: European Council number one, António Costa, the head of the EU executive, Ursula von der Leyen, and Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard for the EU Council Presidency. 

But there are also notable absences. Above all, those of the US President, Donald Trump, and his Chinese and Russian counterparts, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, as well as the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, i.e., the heads of four of the world’s leading polluters. Only about sixty of the countries participating in the conference sent delegations at the highest level. For Italy, there is the Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani.

We’re together in Belém with @antonioguterres.

You’ve always spoken up for our planet and we thank you for that.

Europe comes to Belém with our clear climate goals and our solidarity for those most at risk.

The world needs strong multilateral action to face the climate… pic.twitter.com/g90CWKpyYb

– António Costa (@eucopresident) November 6, 2025

 Yet, the urgency to change course has never been greater. The cold shower came this week from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a United Nations agency, whose data showed that 2023, 2024, and 2025 will be the three hottest years on record since records began (i.e., for 176 years), continuing a decade-long trend. 

Echoing statements released by other UN bodies in the previous days, the WMO also acknowledged that it is now “virtually impossible” to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above 1990 levels, as prescribed by the 2015 Paris Agreement. According to calculations by the UNEP (the UN Environment Programme), the world is currently heading toward an average temperature rise of between 2.3 and 2.5 °C, a level that experts believe will cause a massive increase in extreme weather events and devastating damage to many natural ecosystems. 

A scathing criticism came from UN Secretary General António Guterres, who co-chairs the conference with Lula. The UN chief pointed the finger at world leaders, who are guilty of failing to follow up on commitments made ten years ago because they are “hostage to the entrenched interests” of corporations and lobbies that are “realising record profits from climate devastation.” The host opened what he called “the COP of truth“, warning that the “window of opportunity” for action “is closing” and highlighting the need to “reverse deforestation and overcome dependence on fossil fuels.”

Speaking at the plenary session alongside Costa, von der Leyen urged leaders to “triple renewable energies and double energy efficiency by 2030,” while maintaining the Paris targets and “the promises made to the countries most vulnerable to the devastating effects of climate change.” Tonight, the President of the European Council will speak at the thematic session dedicated to forests and oceans. The EU chief executive will talk tomorrow during the panel on energy transition and decarbonisation of industry. 

According to the organisers themselves, COP30 should not be a stage for new lofty promises, but rather focus on implementing the commitments made so far. The most notable initiative is the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Fund (TFFF), a global fund for the protection of tropical forests with which Brazil aims to mobilise $125 billion ($25 billion from state coffers and the other $100 billion from private investors). For the time being, however, neither the EU nor the UK will participate in this latest green finance instrument.

 The Brazilian presidency has structured the work around six main pillars. They will discuss energy transition, industry and transport; the management of forests, oceans and biodiversity; the transformation of agriculture and food systems; the resilience of cities, infrastructures and water resources; the promotion of human and social development; and, finally, the so-called ‘accelerators‘, i.e., those elements that can facilitate progress in all of the above areas, including on the financial, technological, and logistical fronts.

 The EU arrives at the Belém discussions with a less ambitious position than in the previous five-year period, characterised by the adoption of the Green Deal. Although von der Leyen calls this a “historic achievement” for reducing CO2 emissions, in reality, the Twenty-Seven have set more modest targets than the Commission’s original proposal: a range between 66.25 percent and 72.5 percent by 2035, rising to 85 percent by 2040. 

Moreover, the entire international climate policy is in serious difficulty at this historical juncture. The strong electoral growth of populist movements, which are skeptical or openly denialist regarding climate change, combined with a generalized contraction of the global economy, has led many governments to back away from recent commitments. Washington’s about-face is particularly significant in this regard: today, Trump is (again) pulling the US out of the Paris Treaty, even though it was the US administration that provided the decisive diplomatic impetus to conclude it.