France’s local elections: polarisation between RN and the left dominates first round

Brussels – The first round of local elections in France has provided a clear snapshot of the political tensions that will shape the country’s path towards the 2027 presidential elections. The results across the 35,000 municipalities that went to the polls show a weakening of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition, in favour of a polarisation between the radical right Rassemblement National (RN) and the various strands of the left.

The Rassemblement National secured a significant victory in Perpignan, where the outgoing mayor Louis Aliot was re-elected in the first round, consolidating the party’s hold on the only major city governed by Marine Le Pen’s party to date. In Nice, the picture is equally favourable for the far right: Eric Ciotti, leader of the Union of the Right for the Republic and a close ally of the RN, secured over 43 per cent of the vote, clearly outpacing the outgoing mayor Christian Estrosi, a representative of the centrist-Macronist camp, who remained at 31 per cent. In Toulon too, victory seems within reach, with RN spokesperson Laure Lavalette leading with 42 per cent of the vote, ahead of Josée Massi of the right-wing civic list. In Marseille, however, the race remains wide open: the RN candidate Franck Allisio secured around 35 per cent, leaving the race in what is essentially a technical tie with the outgoing left-wing mayor, the independent Benoît Payan, backed by the Socialists.

For the moderate left, Paris remains the main stronghold. Emmanuel Grégoire, the Socialist Party candidate and former deputy to the outgoing mayor Anne Hidalgo, secured almost 38 per cent of the vote, pulling ahead of Rachida Dati, the Republicans (LR) candidate, who remained at 25 per cent. However, to win in the second round, Grégoire will have to seek a difficult alliance with Sophia Chikirou, the candidate for France Insoumise (LFI), who secured 12 per cent. This alliance is complicated by the sharp differences between Olivier Faure’s Socialists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left, exacerbated by recent controversies concerning anti-fascist groups in Lyon. While the moderate left holds its ground in the major cities, LFI has scored a historic victory in Saint-Denis, snatching the council from the Socialists and becoming the dominant force in the Île-de-France region’s main centre after the capital.

Against this backdrop of a general retreat for the centrists, the only one smiling is former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe. Re-elected as mayor of Le Havre with over 43 per cent of the vote, Philippe has cemented his leadership of the Horizons party and, above all, his future bid for the presidency. His success stands in stark contrast to the decline of Macron’s official candidates, who in many provinces lost votes to right-wing lists. Attention now turns to the run-offs, where Jordan Bardella’s strategy of “reaching out” to right-wing moderates will test the left’s ability to regroup despite internal divisions.