Elections in Bulgaria: the EU welcomes Radev—but doubts remain about his stance towards Kyiv

Brussels – While waiting to put its professed pro-European “commitment” to the test in practice, the European Union has congratulated Rumen Radev on his victory yesterday (19 April) in the Bulgarian elections. The round of congratulations was initiated by the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, who described the victory of the leader of the Progressive Bulgaria coalition as a “clear victory“, emphasising that “it is a pleasure to welcome back to the European Council” the former President of the Republic and now Prime Minister-designate of Sofia. “As we agreed during our telephone call this morning,” Costa concluded, addressing Radev directly, “I look forward to working with you on our shared agenda for a prosperous, autonomous and secure Europe.” Just a few minutes after the former Portuguese Prime Minister’s remarks, best wishes for success in his work were also received from the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who said she was looking forward to working with Radev “for the prosperity and security of Bulgaria and Europe.” The German politician also wished to emphasise that Sofia is “a proud member of the European family and plays an important role in tackling our common challenges.”

Rounding off the “triumvirate” of leaders from the main EU institutions is the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, who addressed Radev to congratulate him and emphasise that the European Parliament is “ready to work together to strengthen Europe and achieve tangible results for its citizens.”

As for the leaders of the main Member States, neither the French President, Emmanuel Macron, nor the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, have publicly congratulated Radev.
It was the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who offered her “warmest congratulations on the election victory.”

Via her X profile, the Prime Minister highlighted the nature of relations between Rome and Sofia, describing them as “deep” and “the result of a historical, economic, and cultural bond that has strengthened over time.” “I am certain,” Meloni remarked, “that we will be able to further strengthen the partnership between Italy and Bulgaria, both bilaterally and within the broader context of the challenges facing us in Europe and on the international stage.”

Behind the string of statements marked by institutional courtesy lie the doubts of Brussels and the major European capitals about certain positions expressed by Radev during the election campaign, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict  and Bulgaria’s entry into the Eurozone. Hesitations, which—according to the post-election analysis by the
European Council on Foreign Relations

think tank (ECFR)—should be put into perspective. The ECFR’s argument is based on the conviction that it is highly unlikely that the former President of the Republic of Bulgaria could assume the role of a “new Orbán” within the European Council. As explained by the ECFR’s deputy director, Vessela Tcherneva, it was precisely the defeat of the former Hungarian prime minister in the elections on 12 April that deprived Radev of the necessary support “to act as a blocking factor.” Furthermore, Tcherneva emphasised, “with the looming economic crisis, (Radev, ed.) will not run the risk of seeing EU funds frozen” due to a hostile attitude towards Brussels on the part of Sofia.

The European think tank’s optimistic interpretation of the Bulgarian election result does not appear to be shared by everyone within the EU. Renew Europe, the group of liberals within the European Parliament, for example, has been highly critical of Radev. The group’s chair, Valerie Hayer, warned of the risk of introducing “a new Trojan horse for Putin in Europe, diverting Bulgaria from its European path and steering it towards Russia, thereby exposing NATO’s southern flank and the EU.” “Bulgaria is a major producer of ammunition that helps Ukraine,” added the French MEP, who believes that Radev could jeopardise this supply.