Brussels – The future of the European Union will be shaped by a smaller and older population. This is the conclusion drawn from the Third report on demographic change, published by the European Commission and produced by the Joint Research Centre, which analyses the consequences of demographic change on competitiveness, innovation, social cohesion, and sustainable development. According to the report, an ageing population and a shrinking workforce represent—and, above all, will represent—major challenges for the labour market, healthcare systems, social care, and public finances. To address the issue, at least in part, the European Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica, suggests focusing on “well-managed migration,” which “can be an important part of the solution, bringing workers to where they are most needed.”
The data in the report paint a picture of a profound transformation of European society. The EU’s population is currently at an all-time high, standing at 450.6 million people, but is set to decline over the coming decades: projections indicate around 445 million inhabitants in 2050 and 398.8 million in 2100, representing an overall decline of 11.7 per cent, bringing the number of Europeans back to 1970s levels. At the same time, Europeans are living longer than ever before: life expectancy at birth reached 81.5 years in 2024, thanks to advances in healthcare, living conditions, and social systems.
Italy is one of the European countries where demographic change is most evident. According to the report, by 2025 Italy will have the highest average age of any country in the European Union, at 49.1 years, well above the EU average of 44.9 years and Ireland’s 39.6 years, the youngest country. In terms of birth rates, Italy continues to rank among the lowest, with a fertility rate of just over 1.1 children per woman, behind Latvia, Estonia, Spain, Poland, Lithuania, and Malta. At the same time, Italians are among the longest-living on the continent: according to Eurostat data cited in the report, life expectancy is the third highest in the EU, after Spain and Sweden, at around 85 years for women and 81 for men. By 2100, these figures are set to rise further, to around 92 years for women and 89 for men.
The ageing population will also profoundly change the structure of European society. By 2050, almost one in three European citizens will be over 65, compared with around one in five today. In the long term, life expectancy could exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men by 2100. At the same time, a person born in the European Union in 2023 could expect to live, on average, up to 75.3 years without serious illness, a figure that highlights the improvement in quality of life, but also the need to rethink care systems.
One of the main consequences of demographic change is the decline in the working-age population. The report highlights that around 20 per cent of people of working age are currently outside the labour market, while a gender employment gap of 10 per cent remains. Furthermore, around 8 million young Europeans are not in education, training or employment. It will therefore be essential for the European Commission to increase labour market participation, harness untapped talent and improve productivity through investment in innovation and artificial intelligence.
Training will also play a central role. With the workforce set to shrink, the European Union is focusing on improving skills through retraining and professional development policies. The European Union of Skills strategy aims precisely to “strengthen lifelong learning” by supporting vocational training and the creation of skilled jobs.
The European Commission also highlights the contribution that skilled migration can make. The arrival of workers from non-EU countries can help to “fill certain staff shortages” in the sectors most affected by labour shortages, thereby supporting innovation and economic growth. However, Brussels stresses that the priority remains to “develop the skills of people already living in the EU through education and training programmes.”
Demographic change will also have significant effects on healthcare and social care systems. As life expectancy increases, so too will the demand for long-term care and services: the number of people requiring care could rise from the current 36 million to 48 million by 2070, while the proportion of people aged over 80 is set to double. This pressure will pose new challenges for public finances, but according to the European Commission, it may also foster the development of the so-called longevity economy—that is, the economic value generated by the consumption, income, and wealth of people over 50—specifically in terms of opportunities for sectors such as healthcare, technology, financial services, and innovation.
The EU aims to turn demographic change into an opportunity and, to this end, has put a number of tools in place. These include the Demography Toolbox, adopted in 2023 and supported by the Member States, which provides national, regional, and local authorities with tools to integrate demographic trends into public policies. Among the initiatives outlined by the Commission are the European plan for affordable housing, designed to make sustainable homes available more accessible, particularly for young people and vulnerable families; the future Strategy for intergenerational equity, designed to strengthen solidarity between generations; the European Strategy for Care, to improve access to quality care services; and the long-term vision for rural areas, which are facing depopulation, an ageing population,, and a loss of young residents.
In the next EU’s multiannual financial framework for the period 2028–2034, the Commission also proposes to include tackling the effects of demographic change among the objectives of the National and Regional Partnership Plans. The challenge for Europe will therefore be to transform an ageing and shrinking society into one capable of innovating, maintaining its competitiveness and ensuring cohesion between the generations.
