Brussels – As representatives of the three main European institutions prepare for a long night of negotiations to finalise the text of the agreement between Brussels and Washington on US tariffs, the latest data on the state of the European Union’s international trade paints a bleak picture. According to a data published today (19 May) by Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, in March 2026, the EU-27 recorded a surplus of 5.9 billion euros in trade in goods with the rest of the world, a sharp drop from the 34 billion euros recorded in March 2025, and the eurozone recorded a surplus of 7.8 billion euros, a sharp fall from the 34.1 billion euros recorded in March 2025.
The absolute figures for exports and imports paint an even clearer picture of this decline. Two months ago, the EU as a whole saw the total value of exports stand at just 233.9 billion euros, down 8.7 per cent compared to the 256.1 billion recorded in March 2025. Imports reached 228 billion euros, rising by 2.7 per cent compared to the 222.1 billion euros recorded 12 months earlier.
The fall in exports recorded in March, however, does not appear to be an isolated incident. Not only had the flow of goods to non-EU countries already recorded a year-on-year decline in January (-9.2 per cent) and February (-9 per cent) of this year, but the negative trend is also confirmed when using different “benchmarks.” Without going as far as last year, the surplus recorded in March is also down compared to February 2026 (9.1 billion euros).
The quarterly comparison shows no improvement. Between January and March 2026, the EU recorded a trade surplus of 8.4 billion euros, below the 50.7 billion euros in the same quarter of 2025. Both exports and imports fell, but the decline in exports (-8.9 per cent) was not sufficiently offset by the fall in imports (-3 per cent).
According to Eurostat’s analysis, this run of negative figures is mainly attributable to the “substantial reductions” in surpluses in two key sectors: chemicals and automotive. When comparing March 2026 with March 2025, the surpluses recorded by these two macro-sectors fell from 40.8 billion euros to 17.6 billion euros and from 21.6 billion euros to 11.3 billion euros, respectively. The crisis’s crucial role in these two sectors is confirmed by the fact that data for other sectors, such as agri-food, energy, and raw materials, remained largely stable year-on-year.
What matters, however, is not only the specific dynamics of individual sectors, but also the gradual shift in the EU’s relations with some of its key trading partners. Foremost among these is the United States. While Europe is caught up in internal squabbles over the final text of the so‑called Turnberry Agreements, Donald Trump’s tariffs (whose legitimacy, it bears repeating, is increasingly being challenged in US courts) continue to bite.
According to Eurostat figures, Brussels’ trade surplus with Washington fell from 40.4 billion euros in March 2025 to 13.5 billion euros in March 2026, due to a 37 per cent drop in exports and a slight 1 per cent increase in imports.
But it’s not just America. The trade balance with China is also worsening: the balance – already negative – has gone from -30.9 billion euros to -32.6 billion euros, with exports falling by 2.3 per cent and imports rising by 2.7 per cent. The deficits with Japan (from 0.0 to -0.2 billion euros) and India (from -1.9 billion euros to -2.1 billion euros) are also worsening – albeit slightly. The surplus with Turkey is falling (from 1.4 billion euros to 0.8 billion euros), and finally, Brazil moves from a deficit of 0.2 billion to a surplus of the same amount.
As it seeks to lick its wounds, the EU would do well to focus on the few areas of improvement: the surpluses with the United Kingdom and Switzerland rose from 16 billion euros to 18 billion euros and from 8.4 billion euros to 9.1 billion euros, respectively, while the deficit with South Korea fell from -0.8 billion euros to -0.2 billion euros.
Finally, Eurostat data also provide an overview of international trade trends in the Eurozone. However, even when the analysis is restricted to those countries that have adopted the single currency, the picture remains the same. In March 2026, the trade balance remained positive at 7.8 billion euros, but the surplus is nonetheless down sharply compared with the 34.1 billion euros recorded in March 2025.
For the Eurozone too, this marks the third consecutive month in which exports have fallen year-on-year: down 7.2 per cent in January and by 6.9 per cent in February, outbound goods flows contracted by 5.5 per cent in March, from 280.6 billion euros to 265.3 billion euros. By contrast, imports rose by 4.4 per cent, reaching 257.4 billion euros (in March 2025 they stood at 246.5 billion euros).
The picture is no better when comparing figures with the previous month (in February 2026, the trade surplus stood at 11.1 billion euros), or on a quarterly basis. Like the EU as a whole, the Eurozone also saw its surplus between January and March this year shrink by 70 per cent year-on-year, from 55.4 billion euros to 16.6 billion euros. Once again, the decline in exports (-6.5 per cent) far outstripped that of imports (-1.5 per cent).
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
