Brussels – New research from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) shows that, globally, up to 560 million children aged between 0 and 9 (43 per cent of all children in this age group) are exposed to at least one additional month (30 or more days) of heat stress per year due to human-induced climate change. This duration exceeds that of any other age group and is almost triple the 190 million people (30 per cent) aged between 60 and 69 who face this additional health threat. Children, therefore, are already exposed to disproportionately high levels of dangerous humid heat caused by human-induced climate change, and this exposure is expected to increase as temperatures rise further.
According to climate scenario projections for global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C – which are extremely likely to be exceeded if countries continue with their current policies – the number of children aged between 0 and 9 exposed to an additional month of dangerous heat is projected to rise to 620 million (49 per cent) and 650 million (59 per cent), respectively. The study, which an international team of researchers led by the VUB published yesterday (26 August) in Science Advances, is the first-ever analysis to quantify how heat exposure directly linked to climate change affects different age groups globally, both now and in the near future. The researchers combined demographic data with state-of-the-art climate models and attribution science, which identifies the role of climate change in extreme weather events.
This groundbreaking study highlights that the health risks arising from climate change are already present and unevenly distributed across generations and geographic areas. Climate change has almost tripled the number of children exposed to total heat stress for at least 5 months (150 days) globally, rising from 120 million (9 per cent of today’s children) in a world without climate change to 350 million children (27 per cent) today. This figure is almost three times the number of adults aged 60 to 69 exposed to total heat stress for at least 5 months (120 million, or 18 per cent).
The greatest increases in heat and humidity due to climate change are occurring in tropical regions and in the poorest countries, where populations are younger and, as a result, more children are affected. South Asia, South-East Asia and West Africa are the regions with the highest number of children currently exposed to dangerous heat stress. Children will remain disproportionately exposed compared with all other age groups, regardless of the global ageing of the population. In a world with a 1.5 °C rise in temperature, it is projected that 620 million children (49 per cent) aged between 0 and 9 will experience at least one additional month of heat stress per year, and 390 million (31 per cent) will experience at least 5 months in total of heat stress. In a world with a 2 °C temperature rise, it is projected that 650 million children (59 per cent) aged between 0 and 9 will experience at least one additional month of heat stress per year, and 420 million (37 per cent) will experience at least five months of heat stress in total.
Excessive heat disrupts the normal functioning of the human body, exacerbates pre-existing medical conditions and can lead to serious complications such as heatstroke, dehydration and organ failure. Dangerous heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change, which is primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas. The study focuses on humid heat, which is more dangerous than dry heat because it hinders the body’s ability to sweat and cool itself, leading to severe heat stress. Children are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat because their bodies heat up faster than adults, they sweat less effectively, and they depend on adult care. Overheating can cause serious health risks, including dehydration and dangerous heatstroke, as well as impacts on learning and cognitive development. These findings come at a critical juncture for climate policy, with the current energy crisis further highlighting the risks of dependence on fossil fuels, and with 2026 already seeing some of the most intense heatwaves ever recorded – some of which would have been virtually impossible without the influence of climate change.
“Climate change is already causing hundreds of millions of children worldwide to suffer from dangerous heat, posing serious risks to their health,” the lead author of the study and PhD student at VUB, Rosa Pietroiusti, said. “Children in developing countries are disproportionately exposed to climate extremes, both now and in the future, despite having contributed the least to historical greenhouse gas emissions.” At the same time, “ poverty, inadequate housing, limited access to cooling and overburdened health systems mean that many children have few options for protecting themselves from the heat.” Therefore, “young people are not only the hardest hit by climate change; they are also at the forefront of the fight against it, from leading school strikes for the climate to bringing important climate cases before national and international courts.” Finally, Pietroiusti reiterated that “we need governments to step up and take serious and immediate action to respond to young people’s calls for climate justice.”
“Our research emphasises that, in order to protect future generations, policymakers must urgently and drastically reduce fossil fuel emissions and limit global warming in line with the Paris Agreement to halt the most catastrophic consequences of the climate crisis,” said the study’s senior author and VUB professor, Wim Thiery. At the same time, “a massive increase in climate finance for developing countries and targeted adaptation measures worldwide, such as heat action plans and improved public health systems, will be essential to protect younger generations in a rapidly warming world,” he concluded.
Article produced in collaboration with GEA.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
