Donald Trump has won, and overwhelmingly won, the US election.He probably did not expect such a result either: a five-million-vote margin nationwide, according to early results.
Trump, the oldest person to ever become president of the United States, is a “strong man;” that is how he defines himself; he promises to solve the most pressing problems of the World and the United States through his charisma and personal relationships. He has wished for the shooting of the press and has promised an “ethnic cleansing” of all US officials and politicians who do not report to him. He spares no armed threats against anything he considers harmful to his country, internally and externally. The United States, however, is an ancient, strong democracy; it can have shocks, even considerable ones – think of even the witch hunts during McCarthyism – and it could withstand another four years of a Trump presidency, which, however, could be followed by another four of a Vance presidency, who knows.
The issue is that the whole World is now in the hands of “strong men,” let’s call them that, even improperly, to make one group without much distinction between dictators, autocrats, and so on. The three most important world powers have this type of leader: the US, China, and Russia; there are also emerging powers like India and regional ones such as Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, and further down the list, Tunisia — and the full list is much longer. Even democratic countries, such as Israel, are breaking all the rules of international relations.
In the middle is a European Union weaker than ever: divided, fearful, with a trudging economy, with rising far-right, nationalist political forces. A non-entity in foreign policy, a secondary player in world balances, and almost entirely ineffectual even in crises on its doorstep. In short, it is alone. It no longer has a side to play on — Trump has made that clear, even questioning NATO, of which he is the largest shareholder.
We will have to see the interaction of these “strong men” of the World who lead countries with decisive power over the Planet’s development, trade, freedoms, and borders. Putin’s Russia wants to rebuild the Tsarist empire; China wants to conquer as much of the Planet as possible, commercially and increasingly also militarily; the US, having defended its own undefined vital space, intends to close inward, cutting relationships that Trump deems unnecessarily costly with its historical partners. How will they interact? Will they amicably divide the World into zones of influence? Will they come into conflict (not armed) with one another? Will there be a new, different, more articulated “cold war?” The actors are not the same as 60-70 years ago; the ambitions are different (especially in China and the US). The only thing we face is dangerous uncertainty in which power politics will rule.
In this climate, today’s European Union, with its leaders, with its strength in foreign policy, with its economic strength, risks shattering, being crushed, and will end up choosing perhaps a new master, probably several masters, rather than becoming a player at the table on equal terms with others.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
