Costa gives Meloni a boost ahead of the election, von der Leyen set to follow; Ukraine remains the key issue

From Brussels’ perspective, much of the Italian election debate revolves around Ukraine. The Union’s commitment to supporting Kyiv is constantly reiterated and put into practice, despite countless difficulties caused by sceptical governments, pro-Russian factions, somewhat weary populations, and historic allies like the US who change sides and end up siding with the Russian dictator, without even attempting to hide it.

 It’s a crucial contest: it is rightly believed, in our view, that it is imperative to prevent Moscow from winning this war (which it is not currently winning), because otherwise the security of the entire European Union would be at risk (as would the principle that might does not make right). There are broad overtures toward Ukraine’s accession to the EU, at least in declarations. Military support is as extensive as possible. There is a war, and it is being fought with weapons, until the invader can be forced to sit down and negotiate a decent peace. The alternative, as seen in Brussels—and it seems frankly obvious—is the spread of Russian troops throughout Ukraine, for now. Then, perhaps, they would go further, as Putin has made clear in countless speeches.

 A lot of money has been spent; it has been a major investment in the future, essentially. In return, besides keeping Moscow out of Europe’s heart, European Countries are starting to acquire some of the technology Ukrainians have developed in the emergency, as always happens in wars. 

And it should be said that the Union has also defended its role on the international stage. In general, Brussels is largely ignored as a world power—a recent example is its total insignificance in the Middle East. Letting Moscow have its way in the heart of Europe would mean surrendering and resigning oneself to being nothing, to having no international standing whatsoever. Given the disastrous (though recoverable) state of the economy, it would mean disappearing within a few decades. It would be a decline—not a happy one—and all Europeans would suffer from it.

Having roughly outlined the current position of the European Union—and thus that of the majority of its governments—it becomes easy to understand that if an important country like Italy were to fall into the hands of forces, let’s say, “uncertain” about the course described above, it would be a terrifying prospect for Brussels. Especially given the French situation, where a party as subservient to Russia as Marine Le Pen’s could win the presidential election, preserving Italy’s support has become a priority.

Giuseppe Conte’s Five Star Movement is therefore a big problem. Assuming the “broad coalition” (Campo Largo) manages to cobble together an agreement for the elections, the fear is that, should Conte find himself, let’s say, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (it’s hard to see him as Prime Minister at the moment), Italy could become unreliable in providing military aid to Ukraine, could pursue unilateral approaches with Putin—in short, could weaken the front that, up to now, has been unified and guaranteed by Giorgia Meloni, who is trying to stop the invasion. It’s true, Meloni sends few weapons, and Matteo Salvini is a problem (mainly just noise), but politically, the Prime Minister has proven to be firmly aligned with the European majority that has chosen to support Kyiv.

In Brussels, as we’ve written many times, they are pragmatic: as long as one isn’t overtly Nazi, like the AfD, one is basically welcomed, provided one is reliable on the two or three fundamental issues at a given political moment. Meloni is; Conte is not (at least, not so far, since leaving Palazzo Chigi).Thus António Costa, under the pretext of the 70th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, is gifting Meloni with a celebratory European Council to be held in Rome next March, probably right before the vote—a unique platform where she would be the true protagonist, welcoming colleagues as the host – an exceptional showcase. 

Ursula von der Leyen has a bit more difficulty lending Meloni a hand; she has budgets to manage, and must do “real” things, not just symbolic ones, so finding a way to offer a gift is harder. However, Rome’s requests—from budget “flexibility” to concessions on green policies to rigidity on migrants—are so numerous that the Commission President will surely find something good to offer.

 Unless the broad coalition finds a unified, solid, credible position—which might even cost some votes but would allow it to be a sort of “neutral” alternative for Brussels. In that case, the EU could decide not to back any candidate and let the race play out on its own.