What’s happening in Italy. We’ll enlighten those observing from a normal country

We’ll try to explain, in as European terms as possible, how Italy is preparing for the elections. Today the first episode.

 The election stage has been set. On Sunday night the agreement between PDL and the Northern League was reconstructed. So the lineup is: Center Left (a coalition of the Democratic Party with Left Ecology Freedom -SEL, a left-wing group that aggregates some Greens, ex-Communist Refoundation Party members and politicians from other small groups), Center (Mario Monti Alliance, Pier Ferdinando Casini for the Union of Democratic Christians, Gianfranco Fini for Future Liberty of Italy and some other small groups), Center Right (Pdl- Free People and Northern League), Beppe Grillo’s 5 Star Movement and other minor groups.

 Recent polls confirm a clear lead for the Center Left lead strongly by Pierluigi Bersani. The platform seems less shaky than that of the Olive Tree led by Romano Prodi, which is down also due to a lack of parliamentary base and a strong antagonism even though individual MP’s elected in the coalition. The Democratic Party could even obtain a sufficient number of MP’s to govern alone without having to negotiate with the left.

 On the same level, the Center, Center Right and Grillo each have about 15%. The situation here is very fluid and centers around 3 forces for various new movements to the election: This is the first time Grillo faces a national challenge and the result could be much lower than expected a few weeks ago. The Center is made up of old political leaders, who are used to navigating in rough seas, like Pier Ferdinando Casini and Gianfranco Fini, but as always on a weak boat, the Monti Alliance, a group of candidates and interests of which the electoral force is yet to be determined. The Silvio Berlusconi coalition is not even comparable to that of 5 years ago; it is a force in disarray and is not able to clearly express a Prime Minister candidate. Actually one could deduce that the name of the Coalition leader will be Berlusconi because law requires there is one but the former Prime Minister himself says he won’t be the one leading the government in case of victory and designates Angelino Alfano, while the Northern League prefers Giulio Tremonti. But the problem will not come up because despite Berlusconi’s renowned ability to surprise and comeback, his victory seems highly unlikely.

 The battle between Center and Center Left will be strong because the coalitions will compete against one another to steal some of Grillo’s votes. Monti will obtain some marginal votes from former Center Left (a few secondary MPs from the Democratic Party have already decided to run with him), but his constituents are all in Berlusconi’s territory.

 The real risk of instability however is generated by Mario Monti. The choice to present his coalition with a distinct set of lists to the Chamber of Deputies and an individual one to the Senate is dictated by the certainty of not being able to win but thanks to the terrible Italian electoral law (the parties did not want to change during the last year), he can hope to become, even losing with scarce electoral votes, a disturbing element if not decisive, to form a majority between senators even for 2 or 3 votes. In fact, the majority, which in the Lower House is based on national reach, in the Senate is instead based on regional concessions and therefore in some regions could not go to the Democratic Party but the Free People Party (nobody is betting on Monti winning any regions). This is the objective declared by this choice. Therefore, the Center is playing on the possibility of being the deciding element, even losing the elections and being the minority. The element of instability increases because Monti refuses to participate in a government if he is not Prime Minister, as he recently said in a television interview, refusing an eventual position as Minister of Economy in a government with a Center Left coalition, closing each negotiation even before the vote. Consequently, the man who “saved Italy” could be the one who sinks it again, if he decides to impede forming a new solid government.  

 L.R.