Dutch elections: Rob Jetten and D66 win, leading Wilders by 15,000 votes

Brussels – Liberals make a remarkable move in the heart of Europe.In the Netherlands, the liberals of the D66 party are, according to the latest estimates, ahead by 15,000 votes of their far-right challengers. The centrists would ultimately prevail, overtaking the far-right populists, led by Geert Wilders, after a night of uncertainty. More than 78 percent of those eligible took part in the elections, a very high figure, in line with previous polls.

The results remain unofficial, as the 90,000 ballots arrived by mail, and those from the municipality of Venray (45,000 inhabitants) still need to be counted. The town hall was the victim of a fire, interrupting the vote count. In any case, D66 hopes to capitalize on the vote from abroad to take the lead. “We will wait in the next few hours, and perhaps even in the next few days, to know the final results,” said the winner, 38-year-old Rob Jetten, leader of Democraten 66, with a bit of superstition.

The proportional law

A definitive result will not be known until Monday, when the Central Electoral Office (Kiesraad) will check the outcome of the ballots. What appears certain is that both candidates will have 26 seats, or about 16 percent of the vote. However, things could change with the final redistribution, as D66 still hopes to secure an extra seat, a scenario suggested by the Dutch news outlet RTL Nieuws.

Such a drawn-out challenge is the result of the electoral mechanism in the Netherlands. Here, unlike in Italy, there is no real blocking threshold. The distribution of seats is entirely proportional, giving representation to all those who exceed 0.67 percent of the preferences.

The logical consequence is greater instability with small groupings within the Lower House, complicating the creation of a coalition.

Possible governments

Looking at the partial results, there are not many possible governments. The first is a majority composed of the center-right parties. The leader would be D66, flanked by the Christians of CDA, with their 18 seats, and the centrist VVD bloc, which has 20 seats. However, nine elected members would still be missing, and these could come from the right-wing faction JA21, which is more moderate than Wilders’s extremists, in addition to the support of various center-right parties, such as 50+ or CU. The majority would still be very fragile, with about 80 seats out of the 76 needed, involving six parties among others. The majority would be very fragile, comprising about 80 seats out of the 76 needed, and would also involve six parties.

That scenario seems unlikely, as Jetten has said he intends to build “a solid majority.” Therefore, the way forward would be a front composed of D66, CDA, and VVD, but this time in coalition with the center-left of Labor and the Greens. In this scenario, Jetten would have 86 votes on his side by regrouping all relevant political forces, excluding the extremists. However, the VVD does not like this idea of a “broad alliance:” the party of the former prime minister and current NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, said through its leader, Dilan Yesilgoz, that it “would not want to participate in a left-wing government.” The situation remains complex. The executive will certainly be pro-European, but its composition remains difficult.