Milan – Russia’s conquest of Ukrainian territory appears to have come to a definitive halt, while Putin’s drone and missile attacks continue to intensify. After all, while the Ukrainians are managing to limit the damage caused by Russian drones using their own resources, the same cannot be said for ballistic missiles (as was the case with the latest attacks).
Analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War reveals that, over the last three months, the peak day was 13 May, with 892 drones launched simultaneously at Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv. Looking at the entire 2022 database, the ten days with the highest number of aerial targets all occurred between July 2025 and June 2026, with the all-time record set on 24 March 2026 (982 targets, including drones and missiles).
The monthly figures show almost uninterrupted growth since September 2024: from around 1,460 attacks per month to a record high of 7,987 in May 2026. Since mid-2025, the figure has stabilised at between 5,000 and 8,000 attacks per month, without returning to the levels seen in 2024.
As regards territorial occupation, which can be measured in km² using various technologies, the slowdown in the Russian advance in Ukraine is a well-established fact. In April 2026, the Russian army lost net territory for the first time since the summer of 2023 (-116 km²), and in May the loss doubled (-282 km²), marking the sharpest monthly decline in the past year.
In June, the front line essentially stagnated, with Russia regaining just 30 km², a figure which, when added to the previous two months’ figures, marks the end of the phase of continuous advance that Moscow had maintained uninterrupted since late 2023, when it had rebounded from an all-time low of 26,573 km² to control the current 19 per cent of Ukrainian territory.
The situation on the front line in recent months did not come out of nowhere: Russian monthly territorial gains had already been in free fall since November 2025, when they exceeded 500 km², falling to 23 km² by March. According to the ISW, the causes are well known: Ukrainian ground counter-offensives, Kyiv’s medium-range missiles targeting Russian rear areas, the block on Starlink terminals imposed in February 2026, and the Kremlin’s crackdown on Telegram.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
