The historic accession of Croatia to the European Union, between fear and indifference

Today the Balkan state becomes the 28th member of the European family. They have been waiting for the finish line for years but fear and economic difficulties dampen public opinion.

The union was anticipated for years but the celebration will be frugal and the difficulties of a life together will soon begin. What will accompany the historic accession of Croatia to the EU today will be much uncertainty, a dose of indifference and several concerns. The moment in which the Balkan State officially became the 28^th member state is certainly not one of the easiest. There are 9 countries in recession in the family that welcomes Croatia and a single currency weakened by the Eurozone crisis. In this context Croatia is setting itself up to be one of the poorest:  it’s GDP is 39% below the European average, ahead of only Romania and Bulgaria. But Zagreb must deal with a recession that has already lasted 5 years and with a rate of unemployment that hovers around 20%. Not to mention that youth unemployment, which actually hit almost 51%, ranks them 3^rd in Europe after Greece and Spain.

Brussels has already shown signs of discontent, indicating in the report published on May 29th, the Croatian public debt is already 54% and in 2014 it could easily exceed the threshold of 60%. Ditto for the 4.7% deficit which already exceeds the limit this year fixed at 3%. So to welcome them into the European family, Croatia may soon find the opening of an infringement procedure for excessive deficits.

It might also be because of this economic background if the enthusiasm of the population doesn’t seem to go along with this historic goal. After low participation on the referendum for entry, also turnout at the first European elections was extremely low – around 20% of those eligible. Even the official entry celebration will be a reduced version with limited costs (about 1 million Euro). “We will have an emotional but modest party because the economic situation compels us,” explained President Ivo Josipovic.

Even if public opinion remains detached, what will happen is unquestionably an important step, especially from a symbolic perspective. For Croatia, the first country to join the EU with recent war experience on their shoulders, this represents the conclusion of a long process of transition from the Yugoslavian and Socialists experience and the stabilization completed after the bloody war for independence in the 90’s.

The path to arrive to this point has been long. Croatia submitted its application for membership in 2002; negotiations were opened in 2005 and were concluded in 2011 with the signing of the Accession Treaty. In the first phase the major obstacle in the negotiations was the lack of cooperation with the International War Crimes Tribunal for crimes committed in the former Yugoslavia, while the last few years Brussels insisted above all on the democratization of the legislative framework of the institutions on the battle against organized crime and corruption.

In numerical terms not much will change For Europe. The more than 4 million Croatians represent barely .85% of the entire EU population, the 56,542 square kilometers that the country occupies are 1.33% of the territory and Zagreb’s GDP is .53% of that of the EU. But there is already enough to worry other countries; they are concerned about a possible migratory flux of Croatians who can work without special permission. Because of this the UK, Austria, Slovenia, Spain, Belgium, Holland and Germany have already announced that they will use their right to a moratorium to limit the entrance for 2 years.

There are even some in Italy, especially in the near Veneto region, above all in the Northern League, who have issues. Governor Luca Zaia sent a letter to Prime Minister Enrico Letta to ask that a temporary system be set-up for Croatian citizens to access the job market, so as to avoid what he deems could be serious impact on the job market. Mara Bizzotto, MEP of the Northern League, is of the same opinion and wrote a letter to Enzo Moavero Milanesi, Minister for European Affairs.  “Our territories, already burdened by a high rate of unemployment and an unprecedented shortage of jobs would risk being overrun by thousands and thousands of Croatians looking for work,” complains Bizzotto. Another risk, she claims, is that the Italian companies decide to move their production to the Balkan country where “the cost of labor is ½ of the Italian one” and “the Government has already promised zero tax for companies that invest at least 3 million Euro in the next 10 years.”